Grosse Pointe South High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 (fleet 0.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–24 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 4–18 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 11–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 21–24 against 24.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | GPS Team Race | skipper | 0.80 | -2.20 | 0–4 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2018-05-05 | La Piñata Regatta | skipper | 0.61 | -1.43 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −2.04 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Spring Chill Team Race | skipper | 0.59 | -0.40 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.99 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.73 | 2.46 | 7–2 | 5.0 | +1.73 | 1.9 | 12% |
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.66 | 0.34 | 10–4 | 10.6 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Red Hat Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 13.5 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Chill Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 1.79 |
| La Piñata Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| GPS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 0% | — |
| DCDS/PYC | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 0.43 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Halloween Regatta at PYC | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.2 | 0.76 |
| GP South - Fall Fleet Sunday | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 0.23 |
| Coast Guard City Classic Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.8 | 0.45 |
| 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.8 | 0.95 |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 0.56 |
| Cherryland no wind regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Pumpkin Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.1 | 0.83 |
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 1.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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