| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red Mixed | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 0–0 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White (Mixed) | 0–0 |
| 4 | |
Spring Lake High School | Grey | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Grand Haven High School | Mixed | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Traverse City Central | Gold | 0–0 |
| 8 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Tulip MIXED | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,021 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 56 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.516 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spring Lake High School Red Mixed | 3.68 | 6.68 | 14–0 | 11.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.4 | 3% |
| 4 | Spring Lake High School Grey | 0.95 | 2.09 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.14 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 6 | Grand Haven High School Mixed | 0.58 | 1.16 | 5–9 | 3.9 | +0.59 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) | 2.75 | 2.57 | 9–5 | 9.4 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3.37 | 3.04 | 10–4 | 10.6 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 7 | Traverse City Central Gold | 0.68 | 0.18 | 3–11 | 3.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 5 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 2.17 | 1.45 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.72 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 8 | Detroit Country Day School Tulip MIXED | 1.25 | -0.48 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Czadzeck | Spring Lake High School | 1.15 | 4.15 | 14–0 | 11.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.4 | 3% |
| Bryson Hough | Spring Lake High School | 0.98 | 3.98 | 14–0 | 11.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.4 | 3% |
| Kameron Norwood | Spring Lake High School | -0.14 | 1.10 | 2–2 | 1.2 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| Claire Deblanc | Spring Lake High School | 0.70 | 1.84 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.14 | 1.6 | 11% |
| Preston Johnson | Spring Lake High School | 0.27 | 1.41 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.14 | 1.6 | 11% |
| Ryan Peterson | Spring Lake High School | 0.48 | 1.59 | 5–5 | 3.3 | +1.10 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Derek Hartman | Grand Haven High School | -0.04 | 0.96 | 5–7 | 3.4 | +1.00 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Mason Milligan | Grand Haven High School | -0.08 | 0.74 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.82 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Dominic Dulac | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.34 | 1.15 | 9–5 | 9.4 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Ashley Strong | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.66 | 0.34 | 10–4 | 10.6 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Maddie Zimmerman | Traverse City Central | 0.36 | -0.15 | 3–11 | 3.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Brooke Corso | Traverse City Central | 0.17 | -0.34 | 3–11 | 3.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Celeste Anderson | Traverse City Central | 0.15 | -0.35 | 3–11 | 3.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Maryfrances Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.63 | -0.09 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.72 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Lily Salgat | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.80 | 0.07 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.72 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Ethan Lee | Detroit Country Day School | 0.14 | -1.59 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Maddie Yang | Detroit Country Day School | 0.72 | -1.01 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Max Rosenthal | Detroit Country Day School | 0.39 | -1.34 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grey | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Grey | 1-4-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Gold | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Red Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grey | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
White (Mixed) | 2-3-4 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grey | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tulip MIXED | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Grey | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 21 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 1-4-6 DNF |
| 22 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Gold | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Grey | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Gold | 1-3-6 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
White (Mixed) | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grey | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Grey | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Red Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Grey | 1-3-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gold | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grey | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-3-4 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Gold | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 41 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Grey | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Gold | 1-3-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 2-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Grey | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 2-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Gold | 2-3-6 |
| 50 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tulip MIXED | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Grey | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 1-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Tulip MIXED | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Grey | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
