St. Francis High School Traverse City '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 6–8 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 6–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 6–8 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | crew | 0.80 | 0.07 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.72 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Crew | A | 3 | 18.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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