Detroit Country Day School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.22 (fleet 0.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–12 (14%) as crew 5–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–12 | 5–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 7–12 against 8.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.39 | -1.34 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.53 | 4.53 | 5–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Red Hat Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| PYC Halloween Regatta DCDS | Crew | B | 2 | 20.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| DCDS/PYC JV | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 0.21 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 7.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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