| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Norsemen | 0–0 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 0–0 |
| 5 | |
Grosse Pointe North High School | MIXson Dason Line | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red Mixed | 0–0 |
| 7 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White | 0–0 |
| 8 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Cranbrook Blue | 0–0 |
| 9 | |
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | 0–0 |
| 10 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 0–0 |
| 10 | |
Detroit Country Day School | Jelly Bean MIXED | 0–0 |
| 12 | |
Detroit Country Day School | Bunny MIXED | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,916 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 33 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.462 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 30% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 5.10 | 8.10 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 | Detroit Country Day School Varsity | 3.11 | 6.11 | 5–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| 8 | Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue | 0.05 | 2.06 | 2–4 | 0.7 | +2.01 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | 2.85 | 4.28 | 4–1 | 2.9 | +1.43 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3.50 | 4.83 | 4–1 | 3.3 | +1.33 | 0.5 | 41% |
| 5 | Grosse Pointe North High School MIXson Dason Line | 2.62 | 2.72 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Grosse Pointe South High School White | 1.71 | 1.75 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 9 | Cranbrook Kingswood CK Mixed | 1.10 | 0.99 | 2–4 | 2.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 10 | Detroit Country Day School Jelly Bean MIXED | 0.53 | 0.03 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.49 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 5 | Spring Lake High School Red Mixed | 3.60 | 2.64 | 3–2 | 3.5 | −0.96 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 12 | Detroit Country Day School Bunny MIXED | 0.78 | -2.22 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| 10 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 3.12 | -0.65 | 1–5 | 4.3 | −3.77 | 6.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cranbrook Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
MIXson Dason Line | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cranbrook Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
MIXson Dason Line | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Red Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
MIXson Dason Line | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
White | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MIXson Dason Line | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
CK Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | ||
| 28 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MIXson Dason Line | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Red Mixed | def. | |
White | ||
| 31 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
CK Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 35 | |
MIXson Dason Line | def. | |
White | ||
| 36 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Red Mixed | ||
| 37 | |
CK Mixed | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 38 | |
Cranbrook Blue | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | ||
| 39 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | ||
| 40 | |
Lakers Varsity | def. | |
Red Mixed | ||
| 41 | |
Varsity | def. | |
White | ||
| 42 | |
MIXson Dason Line | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 43 | |
Cranbrook Blue | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | ||
| 44 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Bunny MIXED | ||
| 45 | |
CK Mixed | def. | |
Red Mixed | ||
| 46 | |
White | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | ||
| 47 | |
MIXson Dason Line | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 48 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 49 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Red Mixed | ||
| 50 | |
White | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | ||
| 51 | |
Lakers Varsity | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | ||
| 52 | |
Bunny MIXED | def. | |
CK Mixed | ||
| 53 | |
Blue | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 54 | |
MIXson Dason Line | def. | |
Red Mixed | ||
| 55 | |
Gold | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | ||
| 56 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
White | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Bunny MIXED | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 58 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | def. | |
MIXson Dason Line | ||
| 59 | |
Blue | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | ||
| 60 | |
Gold | def. | |
CK Mixed | ||
| 61 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 63 | |
Bunny MIXED | def. | |
MIXson Dason Line | ||
| 64 | |
Norsemen | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 65 | |
White | def. | |
CK Mixed | ||
| 66 | |
Gold | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | ||
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
