Grosse Pointe South High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 (fleet 0.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–20 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 10–12 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 13–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 21–20 against 21.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | GPS Team Race | skipper | 0.58 | 2.16 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +1.57 | 0.8 | 31% |
| 2018-05-05 | La Piñata Regatta | skipper | 0.56 | 1.18 | 5–2 | 4.4 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2018-03-24 | Spring Chill Team Race | skipper | 0.42 | -0.57 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.99 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.48 | 0.29 | 9–5 | 9.4 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.34 | 0.38 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Chill Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 1.07 |
| La Piñata Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| GPS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| DCDS/PYC | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.3 | 1.14 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 0.84 |
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | 0.17 |
| Cherryland no wind regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Forward | Crew | B | 6 | 2.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Eva Rossell |  Michigan State University |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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