| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Novi High School | Mixed | 4–1 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | MIXED Green | 3–1 |
| 5 |  |
Groves High School | Mixed | 2–1 |
| 6 |  |
Traverse City Central | TCC Mixed | 2–2 |
| 7 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Traverse City West | TCW Mixed | 2–3 |
| 9 |  |
Mercy High School - MI | MIXED Maroon | 1–3 |
| 10 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White (Mixed) | 0–4 |
| 11 |  |
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | BRMS Blue-mixed | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,024 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 24 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.416 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.51: a typical event, more orderly than 73% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 4.75 | 7.75 | 5–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 2.61 | 4.18 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +1.57 | 0.8 | 31% |
| 2 | Novi High School Mixed | 3.83 | 4.37 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 6 | Traverse City Central TCC Mixed | 1.47 | 1.89 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 7 | Cranbrook Kingswood CK Mixed | 2.72 | 2.95 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green | 3.27 | 3.49 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 5 | Groves High School Mixed | 2.56 | 2.67 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 7 | Traverse City West TCW Mixed | 2.29 | 2.28 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 9 | Mercy High School - MI MIXED Maroon | 1.29 | 0.81 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 11 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue-mixed | -0.61 | -3.61 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 10 | Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) | 2.76 | -0.24 | 0–4 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Dulac | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.47 | 4.47 | 5–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| Charlie Ramsdell | Novi High School | 0.77 | 1.30 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Liam Clone | Traverse City Central | 1.00 | 1.42 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Robert O'Brien | Traverse City Central | 0.61 | 1.03 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Adrian Stone | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.49 | 0.72 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Charlie Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.52 | 1.75 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Matthew Tan | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.70 | 0.93 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Jack Bull | West Bloomfield High School | 1.01 | 1.24 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Nicole Millerman | West Bloomfield High School | 0.93 | 1.16 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Luuk Schmit | Groves High School | 0.65 | 0.76 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Henry Gonzalez | Groves High School | 0.52 | 0.63 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Nick Gustafson | Traverse City West | 0.84 | 0.83 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Kai Oslund Dolan | Traverse City West | 0.48 | 0.48 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Nate Marsden | Mercy High School - MI | 0.69 | 0.21 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Marina Lamphier | Mercy High School - MI | 0.43 | -0.05 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Jon Crowe | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.01 | -2.99 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Lauren Scolari | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | -0.81 | -3.81 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Ashley Strong | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.80 | -2.20 | 0–4 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
| Anna Carron | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.04 | -1.96 | 0–4 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
CK Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
TCW Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Maroon | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Gold | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
TCW Mixed | 2-3-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 10 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MIXED Maroon | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
MIXED Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
CK Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
MIXED Maroon | 1-3-4 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
MIXED Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Maroon | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
MIXED Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Mixed | def. | |
White (Mixed) | ||
| 25 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 26 | |
Mixed | def. | |
TCW Mixed | ||
| 27 | |
CK Mixed | def. | |
TCC Mixed | ||
| 28 | |
MIXED Green | def. | |
White (Mixed) | ||
| 29 | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 30 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 31 | |
TCW Mixed | def. | |
TCC Mixed | ||
| 32 | |
Mixed | def. | |
White (Mixed) | ||
| 33 | |
CK Mixed | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 34 | |
MIXED Green | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 35 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 36 | |
TCC Mixed | def. | |
White (Mixed) | ||
| 37 | |
TCW Mixed | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 38 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
MIXED Green | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 40 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | ||
| 41 | |
White (Mixed) | def. | |
Gold | ||
| 42 | |
TCC Mixed | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 43 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 44 | |
CK Mixed | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | ||
| 45 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
MIXED Green | ||
| 46 | |
Gold | def. | |
Blue | ||
| 47 | |
TCC Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 48 | |
TCW Mixed | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | ||
| 49 | |
Mixed | def. | |
MIXED Green | ||
| 50 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
CK Mixed | ||
| 51 | |
Gold | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 52 | |
White (Mixed) | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | ||
| 53 | |
TCC Mixed | def. | |
MIXED Green | ||
| 54 | |
TCW Mixed | def. | |
CK Mixed | ||
| 55 | |
MIXED Maroon | def. | |
Mixed | ||
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
