Cranbrook Kingswood '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.93 (fleet 1.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–26 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 9–8 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 5–3 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 3–9 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 8–1 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 27–25 against 26.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.21 | 1.10 | 3–6 | 3.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2019-04-12 | MISSA East Baker - Pre Qualifier Tier 2 | skipper | 1.11 | 2.55 | 6–2 | 4.3 | +1.44 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2018-10-07 | Tango on the Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.94 | 0.83 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2018-05-19 | GPS Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | 0.93 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2018-04-13 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.59 | -3.01 | 1–6 | 3.4 | −3.60 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.86 | 2.87 | 8–1 | 6.3 | +2.01 | 1.7 | 16% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.52 | 0.41 | 2–4 | 2.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
