Navigate

Shepherd Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 52 19 71
2 Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 43 41 84
3 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 52 48 100
4 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 68 38 106
5 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 73 41 114
6 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 59 57 116
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 78 71 149
8 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 50 110 160
9 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 84 84 168
10 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 62 109 171
11 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 97 88 185
12 Whitney Young Whitney Young Dolphins 101 101 202
13 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue 103 110 213
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 1 1 RAF 3 1 4 9 1 8 1 43 Jack Vanderhorst '22
Robert Mansuetto '21
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 10 5 2 6 5 2 7 7 1 5 50 John Hultquist '20
Maura Hopkinson '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 2 RAF 1 7 9 7 3 3 2 4 52 Matthew Tan '20 [1-6]
Adrian Stone '20 [7-10]
Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-2]
Madison Fan '20 [3-10]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 3 4 10 1 3 5 4 4 6 12 52 Matthew Elliott '20 [1-10]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-6]
Anthony Dziuba '21 [7-10]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 5 2 9 10 2 6 1 2 DSQ 8 59 Austin Suvari '19
Lily Allen '19
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts RAF 10 7 2 7 1 10 6 3 2 62 Zach Biela '20
Gabe Kobza '20
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 6 7 8 8 6 3 2 9 9 10 68 Jose Henrique Villa-Nova '19
Margot Dugan '20
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 4 RAF 6 4 8 8 6 10 7 6 73 Ethan Lee '19 [1-10]
Dwight Ellis '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Jay Hannah '21 [5-6]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 8 3 5 9 4 10 8 8 10 13 78 Ulysses Hennelly '20
Saskia Teterycz '21
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 11 9 12 5 13 11 5 5 4 9 84 Bridget Falkenhayn '19 [1-10]
Micheal Barker '20 [1-2]
Kate Naughton '20 [3-10]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 7 8 4 12 11 13 12 RAF 5 11 97 Jason Tothy '20
Benjamin Luu '22
Whitney Young Whitney Young Dolphins 9 DSQ 3 RAF 12 12 11 11 12 3 101 Margo Cicero '22 [1-10]
Rossignel Wolfe '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Neil Rockey '22 [3-4, 7-10]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue 12 6 11 11 10 9 DNF 12 11 7 103 Miles Ford '20 [1]
Jack Suvari '19 [2-6, 9-10]
Toby Riecke '21 [7-8]
Oscar Underburg '20 [1, 7-8]
Miles Ford '20 [2-6, 9-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 1 3 2 1 4 1 2 1 3 1 19 Henry Gonzalez '21
Paige Gorman '21
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 3 5 1 4 OCS 4 1 3 1 2 38 Maggie Swasey '19
Bill Lazarro '22
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 2 2 3 2 2 7 13 2 5 3 41 Jonathan Mack '22
Ellen Petrigan '22
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 5 4 5 3 1 5 7 4 2 5 41 Nate Marsden '19
Kaya Donat '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 4 1 4 7 7 6 3 5 7 4 48 Nicole Millerman '19 [1-6]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [7-10]
Jake Elsen '21 [1-6]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 6 8 7 6 3 3 4 6 4 10 57 Ryan Henderson '19
Elias Henke '19
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 8 9 6 11 5 2 6 7 6 11 71 Charlie Herrick '22
Mary Castellini '21
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 7 6 13 8 6 12 5 8 10 9 84 Grace Beard '21
Angelina Simon '20
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 10 7 8 9 10 8 12 10 8 6 88 Philip Lengyel '21 [1-10]
Adler Wright '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ava Wilson '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Whitney Young Whitney Young Dolphins DSQ 11 10 5 8 10 9 9 13 12 101 Brody Schwartz '20 [1-9]
James Rockey '20 [10]
James Rockey '20 [1-2, 5-8]
Victoria Fulton '22 [3-4, 9-10]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts DNS DNS 9 12 11 13 8 11 9 8 109 Michael Janowics '21
Casey Murray '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue 9 12 11 10 9 11 10 13 12 13 110 Tim Mooney '21
Tyler Knohl '22
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 11 10 12 13 RAF 9 11 12 11 7 110 Patrick Kelly '21 [1-4]
Liam Soule '21 [5-10]
Celia Carl '20 [1-4]
Patrick Kelly '21 [5-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity1133557799
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons11111313224466
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green224466881010
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity335577991111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Blue66881010121211
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Orange55779911111313
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits44668810101212
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars77991111131322
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts88101012121133
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers99111113132244
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates10101212113355
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity121211335577
Whitney YoungWhitney Young Dolphins131322446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity224466881010
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons121211335577
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green335577991111
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity44668810101212
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Blue77991111131322
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Orange66881010121211
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits55779911111313
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars88101012121133
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts99111113132244
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers10101212113355
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates11111313224466
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity131322446688
Whitney YoungWhitney Young Dolphins1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bay High School Bay High School Jack Vanderhorst '22 Robert Mansuetto '21
Varsity Jonathan Mack '22 Ellen Petrigan '22
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Matthew Tan '20 [1-6]
Adrian Stone '20 [7-10]		 Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-2]
Madison Fan '20 [3-10]
Cranbrook Green Henry Gonzalez '21 Paige Gorman '21
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Ethan Lee '19 [1-10] Dwight Ellis '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Jay Hannah '21 [5-6]
Varsity Nate Marsden '19 Kaya Donat '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Miles Ford '20 [1]
Jack Suvari '19 [2-6, 9-10]
Toby Riecke '21 [7-8]		 Oscar Underburg '20 [1, 7-8]
Miles Ford '20 [2-6, 9-10]
Blue Tim Mooney '21 Tyler Knohl '22
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Ulysses Hennelly '20 Saskia Teterycz '21
Orange Charlie Herrick '22 Mary Castellini '21
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Austin Suvari '19 Lily Allen '19
Wildkits Ryan Henderson '19 Elias Henke '19
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School John Hultquist '20 Maura Hopkinson '20
Friars Patrick Kelly '21 [1-4]
Liam Soule '21 [5-10]		 Celia Carl '20 [1-4]
Patrick Kelly '21 [5-10]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Zach Biela '20 Gabe Kobza '20
Scouts Michael Janowics '21 Casey Murray '20
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Bridget Falkenhayn '19 [1-10] Micheal Barker '20 [1-2]
Kate Naughton '20 [3-10]
Ramblers Grace Beard '21 Angelina Simon '20
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Jose Henrique Villa-Nova '19 Margot Dugan '20
Pirates Maggie Swasey '19 Bill Lazarro '22
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Jason Tothy '20 Benjamin Luu '22
Maroons Philip Lengyel '21 [1-10] Adler Wright '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ava Wilson '20 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 [1-10] Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-6]
Anthony Dziuba '21 [7-10]
Lakers Varsity Nicole Millerman '19 [1-6]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [7-10]		 Jake Elsen '21 [1-6]
Whitney Young Whitney Young Margo Cicero '22 [1-10] Rossignel Wolfe '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Neil Rockey '22 [3-4, 7-10]
Dolphins Brody Schwartz '20 [1-9]
James Rockey '20 [10]		 James Rockey '20 [1-2, 5-8]
Victoria Fulton '22 [3-4, 9-10]

Conditions — 11/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1021.9 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From N (356°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1021.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Columbia Sailing School: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Columbia Sailing School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Columbia Sailing School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →