| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse IIe High School | GI Grey - MIXED | 7–1 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Cranbrook Green | 5–3 |
| 5 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White | 5–3 |
| 6 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | MIXED Blue | 3–5 |
| 7 | |
Grosse IIe High School | GI White - MIXED | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Mixed | 1–7 |
| 9 | |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Cranbrook Blue | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,534 team race matches sailed before 2018-10-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 36 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.347 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.54 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 4.48 | 7.48 | 8–0 | 6.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| 2 | Grosse IIe High School GI Grey - MIXED | 4.30 | 5.36 | 7–1 | 6.2 | +1.05 | 0.5 | 41% |
| 5 | Grosse Pointe South High School White | 2.71 | 3.32 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 2.77 | 3.29 | 5–3 | 4.4 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 6 | Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue | 1.61 | 1.78 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 7 | Grosse IIe High School GI White - MIXED | 0.93 | 0.96 | 2–6 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green | 3.33 | 3.22 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 9 | Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue | -0.35 | -3.35 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 8 | Grosse Pointe North High School Mixed | 2.38 | -0.75 | 1–7 | 3.9 | −3.13 | 4.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Dulac | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.59 | 4.59 | 8–0 | 6.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| Jacob Schaupeter | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.53 | 1.55 | 5–2 | 4.0 | +1.02 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Christina Thomas | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.72 | 1.34 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Alex Tigges | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.36 | 1.98 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Anna Carron | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.92 | 1.43 | 5–3 | 4.4 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Nate Marsden | Detroit Country Day School | 0.96 | 1.12 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Rylan Van De Wettering | Grosse IIe High School | 0.31 | 0.34 | 2–6 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Adrian Stone | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.79 | 0.68 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Henry Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.54 | 1.42 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Matthew Tan | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.94 | 0.83 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Roxanne Shaviro | Cranbrook Kingswood | -0.10 | -3.10 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Susanna Wu | Cranbrook Kingswood | -0.55 | -3.55 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Jay Hannah | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.60 | -2.53 | 1–7 | 3.9 | −3.13 | 4.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cranbrook Green | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
MIXED Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cranbrook Green | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
GI White - MIXED | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cranbrook Green | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
MIXED Blue | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cranbrook Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
GI White - MIXED | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
White | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cranbrook Green | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Cranbrook Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
White | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cranbrook Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Cranbrook Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
White | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GI Grey - MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
MIXED Blue | 1-3-6 | def. | |
GI White - MIXED | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
