Cranbrook Kingswood '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 (fleet 0.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–17 (11%) as crew 1–1 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 1–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 2–17 against 4.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | Lake St. Clair Classic Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.11 | -1.53 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.64 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2018-10-07 | Tango on the Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.10 | -2.90 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 2018-05-19 | GPS Team Race | skipper | 0.08 | -0.40 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| PYC regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | -0.36 |
| Leukemia Cup Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 17.1 | -0.12 |
| Lake St. Clair Classic Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 21.3 | -1.28 |
| Tango on the Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Red Hat Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.8 | -0.71 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| GP South - Fall Fleet Sunday | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.4 | -0.05 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Leukemia Cup | Crew | B | 2 | 15.0 | — |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Cherryland no wind regatta | Crew | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Bill Fan |  Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit |
'19 |
| ISSA | Bill Fan |  Detroit Country Day School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Bill Fan |  Bloomfield Hills High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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