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Cherryland no wind regatta

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Holland High School Holland High School Mixed 6–0
2 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 4–2
3 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 4–2
4 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 2–1
4 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 2–1
4 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 2–1
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 2–1
8 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 2–4
9 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1–1
10 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 1–2
11 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 1–2
11 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 1–2
11 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 1–2
14 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 0–2
15 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks 0–3
15 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED 0–3

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,526 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.397 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
3Grosse Pointe South High School
Blue		12.98Jackson Webster / Noah Karcher 1.20
Emma Turner / Audrey Whitaker 1.14
Eva Rossell / Carly Orhan 0.55 2–0
Ashley Strong / Luc Walz 0.74 1–0		78%3–0 (100%)+0.6
4St. Francis High School Traverse City
St Francis Gladiator		21.86
school −0.12		Lily Salgat / Annie Myler 0.76
Mary Frances Myler / Noah Passinault
Jamie Mcclellan / Katherine Clulo 0.61		48%2–1 (67%)+0.6
9Cranbrook Kingswood
Cranbrook Blue		31.52Stephan Declerck / Bill Fan 1–1
Joe Devroy / Meghan Foley 0.69 1–1
Lexi Dietz / Jami Male 1–1
Jimmy Chen / Vanessa Su 0.52 0–1
Lizzie Balsam / Natalie Simmons 0–1
Matthew Tan / Amy Phenjati 0.69 0–1		45%1–2 (33%)−0.4
11Cranbrook Kingswood
Cranbrook Green		31.52Stephan Declerck / Bill Fan 1–1
Joe Devroy / Meghan Foley 0.69 1–1
Lexi Dietz / Jami Male 1–1
Jimmy Chen / Vanessa Su 0.52 0–1
Lizzie Balsam / Natalie Simmons 0–1
Matthew Tan / Amy Phenjati 0.69 0–1		45%1–2 (33%)−0.4
15Bloomfield Hills High School
Black Hawks		40.71Megan O'Gorman / Joe Shoemaker
Adrianna Lee / Jacki Spiegel
Jakob Kuipers / Emily Gilson		28%0–3 (0%)−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Grosse Pointe South High School Blue2.985.983–02.4≥+3.000.948%
4St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator1.862.942–11.5+1.080.347%
11Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green1.520.801–21.3−0.720.186%
15Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks0.71-2.290–30.8≤−3.001.3>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Lily SalgatSt. Francis High School Traverse City0.761.842–11.5+1.080.347%
Mary Frances MylerSt. Francis High School Traverse City0.561.652–11.5+1.080.347%
Adrianna LeeBloomfield Hills High School0.32-2.680–30.8≤−3.001.3>99%
Jakob KuipersBloomfield Hills High School0.05-2.950–30.8≤−3.001.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Grosse Pointe South High School BlueSt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator70%
12Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook GreenBloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks61%
13St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis GladiatorBloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks71%
14Grosse Pointe South High School BlueCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green81%
15Grosse Pointe South High School BlueBloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks84%
16St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis GladiatorCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green45%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 1-3-6 def. St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 2-4-5
2 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 1-2-5 def. Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks 3-4-6
3 St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 1-4-5 def. Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks 2-3-6
4 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 1-2-4 def. Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 3-5-6
5 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 1-3-5 def. Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks 2-4-6
6 St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 1-2-5 def. Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 3-4-6
7 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 1-3-4 def. Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2-5-6
8 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1-3-4 def. Traverse City Central Varsity 2-5-6
9 Traverse City Central Varsity 1-2-4 def. Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 3-5-6
10 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1-3-5 DNF,DNF,DNF def. Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2-4-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
11 Traverse City Central Varsity 1-3-4 def. Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2-5-6
12 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 2-3-4 def. Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1-5-6
13 Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 1-2-6 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 3-4-5
14 Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1-2-6 def. Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 3-4-5
15 Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 1-3-4 def. Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 2-5-6
16 Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 1-2-4 def. Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3-5-6
17 Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 1-4-5 def. Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2-3-6
18 Detroit Country Day School Varsity 2-3-5 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 1-4-6
19 Holland High School Mixed 1-2-5 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3-4-6
20 West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 1-2-3 def. Detroit Country Day School MIXED 4-5-6
21 Holland High School Mixed 1-2-5 def. West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 3-4-6
22 Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 1-3-5 def. Detroit Country Day School MIXED 2-4-6
23 West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 1-2-4 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3-5-6
24 Holland High School Mixed 1-2-3 def. Detroit Country Day School MIXED 4-5-6
25 Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 1-2-6 def. Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 3-4-5
26 Holland High School Mixed 1-2-5 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 3-4-6
27 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 1-3-6 def. Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 2-4-5
28 Holland High School Mixed 1-4-5 def. Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2-3-6
29 Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2-3-5 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 1-4-6
30 Holland High School Mixed 1-2-3 def. Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 4-5-6

Conditions — 05/13/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SSW (212°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1010.8 hPa Rain0.10 in

What this breeze does at Detroit Country Day — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Detroit Country Day in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →