Grosse Pointe South High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 (fleet 1.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–11 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 7–1 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 9–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 10–5 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-13 | Cherryland no wind regatta | skipper | 1.20 | 4.20 | 3–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 48% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.01 | 2.34 | 4–1 | 3.3 | +1.33 | 0.5 | 41% |
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–4 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.21 | 4.21 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | -0.09 |
| Cherryland no wind regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Forward | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 1.43 |
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| MISSA East Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| TCSF Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Red 8 Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 0.50 |
| East Qualifier, team racing | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Lakes Championships | Crew | B | 9 | 12.7 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jackson Webster |  U. S. Merchant Marine Academy |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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