| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devils Blue | 0–0 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devils Gold | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Candy Castle | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Traverse City Central | Gold | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Traverse City West | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | norsemen | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 967 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 21 matches (95%) with a log-loss of 0.361 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 4.93 | 7.93 | 6–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | 3.99 | 5.50 | 5–1 | 3.8 | +1.51 | 0.9 | 28% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | 3.52 | 4.24 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +0.71 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 5 | Traverse City Central Gold | 2.21 | 2.42 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | 3.96 | 3.17 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 6 | Traverse City West Varsity | 2.11 | 1.16 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −0.95 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 7 | Grosse Pointe North High School norsemen | 2.12 | -0.88 | 0–6 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Gold | 1-3-6 | def. | |
norsemen | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Candy Castle | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Candy Castle | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-3-5 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Candy Castle | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gold | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
norsemen | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Candy Castle | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
norsemen | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Ramblers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Candy Castle | 1-3-5 | def. | |
norsemen | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Candy Castle | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
