Grosse Pointe South High School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 (fleet 1.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–11 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 22–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 8–7 against 7.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.56 | 1.82 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| TCSF Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Crew | A, B | 8 | 14.8 | — |
| East Qualifier, team racing | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.8 | 0.65 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Owen Pfaff |  Michigan State University |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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