| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Candy Castle | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devils Blue | 0–0 |
| 4 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devils Gold | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devil White | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | New Zealand | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 967 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 20 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.705 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 1.06 | 4.54 | 3–2 | 0.5 | +3.48 | 5.4 | 1% |
| 1 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 5.12 | 5.55 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | 4.20 | 4.47 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | 4.20 | 4.37 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 4 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | 3.85 | 3.39 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 7 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 2.27 | 1.05 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −1.22 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 3.54 | 0.91 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.63 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Julien | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.01 | 3.49 | 3–2 | 0.5 | +3.48 | 5.4 | 1% |
| Maryfrances Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.65 | 4.12 | 3–2 | 0.5 | +3.48 | 5.4 | 1% |
| Katherine Clulo | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.50 | 3.98 | 3–2 | 0.5 | +3.48 | 5.4 | 1% |
| Tom Griffin | Loyola Academy | 1.68 | 2.12 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Owen Hall | Loyola Academy | 1.01 | 1.45 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Alex Zimmerman | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.31 | 1.59 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Caroline Seski | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.08 | 1.36 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Thomas Frikker | Detroit Country Day School | 1.25 | 1.41 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Cole Wiand | Detroit Country Day School | 1.51 | 1.68 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Hattie Garratt | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.46 | -0.45 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −0.91 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Allison Glover | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.56 | -0.66 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −1.22 | 0.5 | 92% |
| Charlie Francis | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.94 | -1.69 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.63 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Jacob Orhan | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.22 | -1.41 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.63 | 2.7 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 91% | |
| 1 | 3 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | 67% | |
| 1 | 4 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 72% | |
| 1 | 5 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | 50% | |
| 1 | 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 26% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 23% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 64% | |
| 1 | 9 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | 67% | |
| 1 | 10 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 92% | |
| 1 | 11 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | 27% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 63% | |
| 1 | 13 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | 58% | |
| 1 | 14 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | 8% | upset |
| 1 | 15 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 77% | |
| 1 | 16 | Detroit Country Day School Candy Castle | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | 56% | |
| 1 | 17 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 12% | upset |
| 1 | 18 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 88% | |
| 1 | 19 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 55% | |
| 1 | 20 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 79% | |
| 1 | 21 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 96% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Candy Castle | 1-2-3 | def. | |
New Zealand | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-3-5 | def. | |
New Zealand | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Candy Castle | 1-2-4 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-6 | def. | |
New Zealand | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Candy Castle | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
New Zealand | 1-2-6 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 12 | |
Candy Castle | 1-4-5 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Candy Castle | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Candy Castle | 1-2-5 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 2-3-4 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
New Zealand | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
GPS Blue Devils Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
GPS Blue Devils Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
New Zealand | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
