Cranbrook Kingswood '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 (fleet -0.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–7 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 3–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (6 matches) the record is 2–4 against 2.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.06 | -0.05 | 2–4 | 2.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| CK Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | -0.34 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Pumpkin Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.2 | -0.74 |
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 19.2 | -0.82 |
| Cornwell Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | -0.82 |
| 2016 Turkey Leg Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 23.3 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.2 | 0.23 |
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | 0.33 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| TCSF Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| TC St. Francis Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Red 8 Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 0.13 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Halloween Regatta DCDS | Crew | A | 5 | 4.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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