| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devil White | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | New Zealand | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Gumdrop Mountain | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
East Grand Rapids | Varsity One | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Detroit Country Day School | Peppermint Forest | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 967 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 10 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.420 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | 3.22 | 6.22 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| 2 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 1.55 | 3.55 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +2.00 | 1.2 | 23% |
| 3 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 0.91 | 0.37 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 2.72 | 1.15 | 2–2 | 2.9 | −1.57 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 6 | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 0.16 | -2.84 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Francis | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.86 | 3.86 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Jacob Orhan | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.04 | 4.04 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Hattie Garratt | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.28 | 2.28 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +2.00 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Carsten Ritter | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.02 | 2.02 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +2.00 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Katherine Clulo | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.45 | -0.09 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Nick Julien | St. Francis High School Traverse City | -0.04 | -0.58 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Maryfrances Myler | St. Francis High School Traverse City | 0.59 | 0.05 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Aidan Darby | Detroit Country Day School | 1.19 | -0.38 | 2–2 | 2.9 | −1.57 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Derek Yi | Detroit Country Day School | 1.21 | -0.35 | 2–2 | 2.9 | −1.57 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Connagh Rowley | Detroit Country Day School | 0.08 | -1.49 | 2–2 | 2.9 | −1.57 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Jacob Mackey | Detroit Country Day School | -0.08 | -3.08 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Vishnu Venkatesan | Detroit Country Day School | -0.02 | -3.02 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 19% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 85% | |
| 1 | 4 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 80% | |
| 1 | 6 | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 67% | |
| 1 | 7 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | 58% | |
| 1 | 9 | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 89% | |
| 1 | 11 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand | 74% | |
| 1 | 12 | Detroit Country Day School Gumdrop Mountain | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | 81% | |
| 1 | 13 | Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 92% | |
| 1 | 15 | St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator | Detroit Country Day School Peppermint Forest | 62% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
New Zealand | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity One | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
New Zealand | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity One | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
New Zealand | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
New Zealand | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity One | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity One | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 2-3-5 | def. | |
New Zealand | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Gumdrop Mountain | 2-3-4 | def. | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
GPS Blue Devil White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity One | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
St Francis Gladiator | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Peppermint Forest | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | GPS Blue Devil White | Charlie Francis '17 Jacob Orhan '18 Liam Walz '17 |
Katherine Kunhlein '16 Patrick Mckeever '18 Dan Van Hove '17 Philip Peck '18 |
|
Cranbrook Kingswood | New Zealand | Allison Glover '17 Carsten Ritter '17 Grant Glover '15 Hattie Garratt '17 |
Celine Chou '17 Kait Alvord '16 Lexi Dietz '17 Lizzie Balsam '18 Jimmy Chen '18 |
|
St. Francis High School Traverse City | St Francis Gladiator | Katherine Clulo '18 Maryfrances Myler '18 Nick Julien '15 |
Sophia Elkhart '18 Jamie Mcclellan '17 Declan Shannon '15 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Gumdrop Mountain | Aidan Darby '16 Connagh Rowley '18 Derek Yi '15 |
Luay Jawad '16 Christopher Soo '18 Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18 Grant Anusbigian '17 Nick Wachol '19 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Peppermint Forest | Alexandra Soo '18 Brian Liu '18 Jacob Mackey '17 Vishnu Venkatesan '16 |
Brian Liu '18 Gaspard Mosquet '19 Veronica Agne '15 Brittany Rivera '15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
