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Cornwell Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1 17 34 51
2 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 35 16 51
3 Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 25 31 56
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 39 36 75
5 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 61 24 85
6 Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 2 54 36 90
7 Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 1 53 63 116
8 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED 33 85 118
9 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Mixed 85 38 123
10 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Mixed 49 75 124
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 62 62 124
12 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 2 71 69 140
13 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 67 85 152
14 Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 87 84 171
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1 4 2 2 1 5 2 1 17 Allison Glover '17
Lauren Winegarden '20
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 1 1 4 5 7 1 6 25 Sara Gustafson '17
Katherine Crewes '17
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED 8 5 3 6 3 3 5 33 Connagh Rowley '18
Kaya Donat '20
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 11 6 1 4 6 4 3 35 Ajay Provost '19
Amelia Burke '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 4 8 10 4 9 2 39 Bryson Hough '21
Caleb Boon '17
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Mixed 6 7 7 2 9 6 12 49 No Show
No Show
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 1 3 11 9 7 8 5 10 53 Blanca Jimenez '19
Jacqueline Oeschger '18
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 2 5 10 12 OCS 1 7 4 54
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 10 3 11 3 11 12 11 61 Katherine Clulo '17
Jamie Mcclellan '17
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 9 12 5 8 2 13 13 62 Brooke Corso '17
Olivia Wilson '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 12 13 6 9 12 8 7 67 Preston Johnson '19
Zak Colvin '19
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 2 7 8 10 OCS 13 10 8 71 Carsten Ritter '17
Sydney Pierce '18
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Mixed 13 14 13 11 14 11 9 85 Shane Sanghvi '19 [1-4]
Jake Elsen '21 [5-7]
Jake Elsen '21 [1-4]
Shane Sanghvi '19 [5-7]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 14 9 14 12 10 14 14 87 Ian Beck '18
Ian Beck '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 1 5 2 1 2 2 3 16 No Show
No Show
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 4 1 3 2 12 1 1 24 Maryfrances Myler '18
Noah Passinault '17
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 3 3 5 6 7 3 4 31 Brooke Ostrowski '18
Nick Gustafson '18
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1 5 4 6 5 5 7 2 34 Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17
Celine Chou '17
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 2 2 8 4 7 3 5 7 36
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red OCS 2 1 4 1 8 5 36 Zoe Czadzeck '20
Abby Airo '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Mixed 7 6 8 3 4 4 6 38 Matt Sullivan '18
Amy Phenjati '18
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 6 11 9 9 11 6 10 62 Caelan Wright '19
Drew Snyder '19
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 1 OCS 7 7 8 6 9 11 63 Marcus "Pinson" Neal '17
Anna Evans '18
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 2 10 10 13 10 8 10 8 69 Lexi Dietz '17
Natalie Simmons '18
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Mixed 9 9 12 11 9 13 12 75 No Show
No Show
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 11 14 11 14 14 11 9 84 No Show
No Show
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 8 13 14 12 10 14 14 85 Kameron Norwood '19
Griffin Phares '21
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED 12 12 10 13 13 12 13 85 Sailesh Yellayi '17 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Matthew Elliot '20 [2, 4, 6]
Matthew Elliot '20 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Sailesh Yellayi '17 [2, 4, 6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 13333333
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 24444444
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Maroon 116161616161616
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Maroon 26666666
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED8888888
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey17171717171717
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red9999999
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City Mixed7777777
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator10101010101010
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black11111111111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold2222222
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School1111111
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity5555555
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB Mixed12121212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 13333333
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 24444444
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Maroon 116161616161616
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Maroon 26666666
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED8888888
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey17171717171717
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red9999999
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City Mixed7777777
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator10101010101010
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black11111111111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold2222222
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School1111111
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity5555555
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB Mixed12121212121212

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.0 kn
Gusts to 27.8 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1022.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →