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CK Invitational Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 24 11 35
2 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Gold 18 21 39
3 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 14 30 44
4 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 7 42 49
5 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 10 47 57
6 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 32 26 58
7 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White 35 24 59
8 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED 28 36 64
9 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Orange 35 39 74
10 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Green 38 38 76
11 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED 56 38 94
12 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) 41 60 101
13 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 41 60 101
14 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED 60 42 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1 2 1 3 7 Allison Glover '17
Calvi Teste '20
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue 2 1 5 2 10 Liam Walz '17
Audrey Whitaker '19
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 7 3 3 1 14 Jack Bull '19
Michelle Chumiecki '19
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Gold 3 4 6 5 18 Charlie Ramsdell '20 [1-4]
Mclellan '19 [1-2]
Mathew Moores '17 [3-4]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 4 6 7 7 24 Preston Carey '17
Christopher Sellers '20
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED 12 10 2 4 28 Lorraine Yuen '18 [1-2]
Luuk Schmit '18 [3-4]
Luuk Schmit '18 [1-2]
Lorraine Yuen '18 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 5 RDG 4 DNS 32 Jackson Webster '17
Drew Clutterbuck '19
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White 9 5 DNS 6 35 Eva Rossell '18
Carly Orhan '19
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Orange 10 7 8 10 35 Thomas Hamill '17
Adam Sellers '17
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Green 11 9 9 9 38 Adam Weinkauf '18
Rj Sables '20
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) 6 DNF 12 8 41 Billy Vogel '21
Gwen Hudson '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 8 8 10 DNS 41 Carsten Ritter '17 [1-4]
Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-2]
Lauren Winegarden '20 [3-4]
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED DNF DNS 11 DNS 56 Adrianna Lee '18
Jacki Spiegel '18
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED DNS DNS DNF DNF 60 Anthony Dziuba '21
Jack Turpen '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black 2 2 2 5 11 Alek Roehl '19
Lauren Scolari '20
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Gold 4 1 1 DNF 21 Ellie Frame '18 [1-2]
Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [3-4]
Mathew Moores '17 [1-2]
Ellie Frame '18 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White 1 4 4 DNF 24 Emma Turner '19
Noah Karcher '18
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold 5 5 DNS 1 26 Ashley Strong '20
Eva Paschke '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity DNF 6 6 3 30 Matthew Elliot '20 [1-2]
Nolan Beaty '19 [3-4]
Nolan Beaty '19 [1-2]
Matthew Elliot '20 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED 7 DNF 7 7 36 Ethan Lee '19
Max Rosenthal '20
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Green DNF 3 5 DNF 38 Teddy Prokop '19
John Godoshian '18
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED DNF 7 10 6 38 Joe Shoemaker '18
Bryce Vandenavond '19
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Orange 6 DNF 3 DNF 39 Jon Crowe '18
Minfei Shen '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 3 DNF 9 DNF 42 Matthew Tan '19
Bill Fan '19
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED DNF DNS 8 4 42 Jake Elsen '21 [1-4]
Walter Paliga '22 [1-2]
Natalia Luna '20 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue DNS DNF DNF 2 47 Julia Hudson '20
Luc Walz '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green DNS DNS DNF DNF 60 Adrian Stone '20
Bonnie Zhu '19
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) DNF DNF DNS DNF 60 Anna Carron '21
Ryan Hexter '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School MIXED3672367236733673
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black36636657045704
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Orange367336731313
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue57045704901901
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green131329662966
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED90190136693669
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Gold2966296633053305
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Green36693669537537
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue3305330543244324
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold537537618618
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White4324432453775377
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed)61861867006700
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity67006700366366
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED5377537736723672

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School MIXED36636657045704
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Black367336731313
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI Warriors Orange57045704901901
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue131329662966
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green90190136693669
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED2966296633053305
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Gold36693669537537
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Green3305330543244324
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue537537618618
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold4324432453775377
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White61861867006700
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed)5377537736723672
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity3672367236733673
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED67006700366366
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Adrianna Lee '18 Jacki Spiegel '18
MIXED Joe Shoemaker '18 Bryce Vandenavond '19
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Preston Carey '17 Christopher Sellers '20
Warriors Black Alek Roehl '19 Lauren Scolari '20
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Thomas Hamill '17 Adam Sellers '17
Warriors Orange Jon Crowe '18 Minfei Shen '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Allison Glover '17 Calvi Teste '20
Cranbrook Blue Matthew Tan '19 Bill Fan '19
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Carsten Ritter '17 [1-4] Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-2]
Lauren Winegarden '20 [3-4]
Cranbrook Green Adrian Stone '20 Bonnie Zhu '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Lorraine Yuen '18 [1-2]
Luuk Schmit '18 [3-4]		 Luuk Schmit '18 [1-2]
Lorraine Yuen '18 [3-4]
MIXED Ethan Lee '19 Max Rosenthal '20
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Charlie Ramsdell '20 [1-4] Mclellan '19 [1-2]
Mathew Moores '17 [3-4]
Gold Ellie Frame '18 [1-2]
Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [3-4]		 Mathew Moores '17 [1-2]
Ellie Frame '18 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Adam Weinkauf '18 Rj Sables '20
Green Teddy Prokop '19 John Godoshian '18
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Liam Walz '17 Audrey Whitaker '19
Blue Julia Hudson '20 Luc Walz '20
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Jackson Webster '17 Drew Clutterbuck '19
Gold Ashley Strong '20 Eva Paschke '20
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Eva Rossell '18 Carly Orhan '19
White Emma Turner '19 Noah Karcher '18
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Billy Vogel '21 Gwen Hudson '20
White (Mixed) Anna Carron '21 Ryan Hexter '21
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 Michelle Chumiecki '19
Lakers Varsity Matthew Elliot '20 [1-2]
Nolan Beaty '19 [3-4]		 Nolan Beaty '19 [1-2]
Matthew Elliot '20 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Anthony Dziuba '21 Jack Turpen '21
MIXED Jake Elsen '21 [1-4] Walter Paliga '22 [1-2]
Natalia Luna '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/06/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1002.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.7 kn
avg  ·  max 16.5 kn
Gusts to 36.3 kn
From NNW (339°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1002.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cranbrook Kingswood: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cranbrook Kingswood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Cranbrook Kingswood, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →