Grosse Pointe North High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 (fleet 1.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–29 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 6–11 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 16–7 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 36–29 against 36.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-12 | MISSA East Baker - Pre Qualifier Tier 2 | skipper | 1.30 | 0.21 | 2–6 | 3.2 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2018-05-05 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.29 | 0.62 | 3–7 | 3.9 | −0.67 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2018-04-13 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.46 | 0.97 | 3–4 | 3.5 | −0.50 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.52 | 1.95 | 5–4 | 4.4 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2017-04-21 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | skipper | 1.35 | 1.67 | 12–6 | 11.2 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.32 | 2.75 | 4–1 | 2.9 | +1.43 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 1.40 | 1.41 | 7–1 | 7.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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