MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals

HostOlentangy Liberty
Date04/21/2017
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	0–0
2	East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity	0–0
3	Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	0–0
4	Rocky River High School	Pirates	0–0
5	Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	0–0
6	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	0–0
7	West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	0–0
8	Olentangy Liberty High School	Patriots	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,949 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 72 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.488 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.25 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	1	5.29	John Walton / Kaitlin Malley 2.09 Blake Stackpoole / Grace Paschke 1.86 13–1 Caroline Seski / Christiana Scheibner 1.26 9–0 Caroline Seski / Taft Peck 1.34 7–2 Blake Stackpoole / Jacob Orhan 1.78 2–0 Christiana Scheibner / Jacob Orhan 1–1	81%	16–2 (89%)	+1.5
2	East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity	3	4.19	Justin Lovell / Bella Kirchgessner Graham Post / Simon Rockwell 1.62 Luke Diehm / Ben Loos	62%	12–6 (67%)	+0.8
3	Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	4	4.18 school +0.11	Lindsey Ramsdell / Ellie Frame 1.18 Charlie Ramsdell / Mathew Moores 1.35 8–6 John Huskin / Adam Weinkauf 1.48 8–6 John Huskin / John Godoshian 1.49 4–0 Charlie Ramsdell / Teddy Prokop 1.39 4–0	62%	12–6 (67%)	+0.8
4	Rocky River High School Pirates	2	4.29 school −0.48	Spencer Asmar / Natalie Dugan Jack Harris / Libby Weixel 0.89 Ian Moran / Margot Dugan 2.76	63%	10–8 (56%)	−1.4
5	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	6	3.24 school −0.25	Harrison George / Lorraine Yuen 1.71 2–7 Harrison George / Kaya Donat 1.69 6–3 Liz Obermaier / Lorraine Yuen 1.07 6–3 Brian Liu / Jacob Mackey 0.61 4–3 Jacob Mackey / Kaya Donat 0.68 1–5 Liz Obermaier / Connagh Rowley 1.05 1–5 Liz Obermaier / Jacob Mackey 1.05 1–2 Connagh Rowley / Kaya Donat 0.82 1–2 Connagh Rowley / Jacob Mackey 0.84 2–0	45%	8–10 (44%)	−0.1
6	Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	8	0.55 school −0.34	Allison Glover / Katie Wei 0.91 Jimmy Chen / Lizzie Balsam 0.32 Amy Phenjati / Natalie Simmons -0.52	18%	7–11 (39%)	+3.8
7	West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	5	2.70 school +0.18	Jack Bull / Bryce Vandenavond 1.17 Isabel Dziuba / Matthew Elliot 0.44 Nicole Millerman / Nolan Beaty 0.83	51%	5–13 (28%)	−4.2
8	Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots	7	0.50 home +0.07	Cameron Friedauer / Tom Oelkers Matt Halverson / Emma Hetrick Siri Schantz / Alex Richardson	18%	2–16 (11%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Cranbrook Kingswood	0.55	2.40	7–11	3.2	+1.85	4.2	1%
1	Grosse Pointe South High School	5.29	6.18	16–2	14.5	+0.88	0.7	29%
3	Grosse Pointe North High School	4.18	4.51	12–6	11.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
2	East Grand Rapids	4.19	4.51	12–6	11.2	+0.32	0.1	43%
5	Detroit Country Day School	3.24	3.19	8–10	8.1	−0.05	0.0	63%
4	Rocky River High School	4.29	3.76	10–8	11.4	−0.53	0.4	85%
8	Olentangy Liberty High School	0.50	-0.36	2–16	3.2	−0.86	0.6	89%
7	West Bloomfield High School	2.70	0.74	5–13	9.2	−1.96	4.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Allison Glover	Cranbrook Kingswood	0.91	2.76	7–11	3.2	+1.85	4.2	1%
Jimmy Chen	Cranbrook Kingswood	0.32	2.18	7–11	3.2	+1.85	4.2	1%
Amy Phenjati	Cranbrook Kingswood	-0.52	1.34	7–11	3.2	+1.85	4.2	1%
Caroline Seski	Grosse Pointe South High School	1.26	2.14	16–2	14.5	+0.88	0.7	29%
Lindsey Ramsdell	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.18	1.51	12–6	11.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Charlie Ramsdell	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.35	1.67	12–6	11.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
John Huskin	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.48	1.80	12–6	11.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Justin Lovell	East Grand Rapids	1.42	1.74	12–6	11.2	+0.32	0.1	43%
Luke Diehm	East Grand Rapids	0.76	1.08	12–6	11.2	+0.32	0.1	43%
Connagh Rowley	Detroit Country Day School	0.82	1.13	3–2	2.8	+0.31	0.0	61%
Brian Liu	Detroit Country Day School	0.61	0.72	4–3	3.9	+0.12	0.0	63%
Liz Obermaier	Detroit Country Day School	1.07	1.02	8–10	8.1	−0.05	0.0	63%
Spencer Asmar	Rocky River High School	0.93	0.40	10–8	11.4	−0.53	0.4	85%
Jack Harris	Rocky River High School	0.89	0.36	10–8	11.4	−0.53	0.4	85%
Jacob Mackey	Detroit Country Day School	0.68	0.06	1–5	1.5	−0.63	0.2	82%
Cameron Friedauer	Olentangy Liberty High School	0.03	-0.83	2–16	3.2	−0.86	0.6	89%
Matt Halverson	Olentangy Liberty High School	-0.21	-1.07	2–16	3.2	−0.86	0.6	89%
Jack Bull	West Bloomfield High School	1.17	-0.79	5–13	9.2	−1.96	4.6	>99%
Nicole Millerman	West Bloomfield High School	0.83	-1.13	5–13	9.2	−1.96	4.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Grosse Pointe South High School	Grosse Pointe North High School	71%
	2	East Grand Rapids	Olentangy Liberty High School	95%
	3	Rocky River High School	Detroit Country Day School	65%
	4	West Bloomfield High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	85%
	5	Grosse Pointe North High School	East Grand Rapids	54%
	6	Grosse Pointe South High School	Detroit Country Day School	83%
	7	West Bloomfield High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	87%
	8	Rocky River High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	95%
	9	East Grand Rapids	Detroit Country Day School	65%
	10	Grosse Pointe North High School	West Bloomfield High School	77%
	11	Grosse Pointe South High School	Rocky River High School	70%
	12	Cranbrook Kingswood	Olentangy Liberty High School	53%
	13	Detroit Country Day School	West Bloomfield High School	59%
	14	Rocky River High School	East Grand Rapids	53%
	15	Grosse Pointe North High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	95%
	16	Grosse Pointe South High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	98%
	17	Rocky River High School	West Bloomfield High School	77%
	18	Detroit Country Day School	Olentangy Liberty High School	89%
	19	Grosse Pointe South High School	East Grand Rapids	72%
	20	Grosse Pointe North High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	95%
	21	Rocky River High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	95%
	22	Grosse Pointe South High School	West Bloomfield High School	89%
	23	Grosse Pointe North High School	Detroit Country Day School	69%
	24	East Grand Rapids	Cranbrook Kingswood	94%
	25	Olentangy Liberty High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	3%	upset
	26	Grosse Pointe North High School	Rocky River High School	48%	upset
	27	East Grand Rapids	West Bloomfield High School	76%
	28	Detroit Country Day School	Cranbrook Kingswood	90%
	29	Rocky River High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	95%
	30	Grosse Pointe South High School	West Bloomfield High School	89%
	31	East Grand Rapids	Detroit Country Day School	68%
	32	Grosse Pointe North High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	94%
	33	Rocky River High School	West Bloomfield High School	78%
	34	Detroit Country Day School	Olentangy Liberty High School	88%
	35	Grosse Pointe South High School	Grosse Pointe North High School	71%
	36	East Grand Rapids	Cranbrook Kingswood	95%
	37	Detroit Country Day School	West Bloomfield High School	59%
	38	Grosse Pointe North High School	Rocky River High School	47%	upset
	39	East Grand Rapids	Olentangy Liberty High School	95%
	40	Grosse Pointe South High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	98%
	41	Grosse Pointe North High School	Detroit Country Day School	69%
	42	East Grand Rapids	West Bloomfield High School	77%
	43	Grosse Pointe South High School	Rocky River High School	69%
	44	Cranbrook Kingswood	Olentangy Liberty High School	50%	upset
	45	East Grand Rapids	Grosse Pointe North High School	52%
	46	Grosse Pointe South High School	Detroit Country Day School	84%
	47	West Bloomfield High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	84%
	48	Cranbrook Kingswood	Rocky River High School	5%	upset
	49	East Grand Rapids	Grosse Pointe South High School	30%	upset
	50	Grosse Pointe North High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	94%
	51	Rocky River High School	Detroit Country Day School	68%
	52	Cranbrook Kingswood	West Bloomfield High School	16%	upset
	53	Grosse Pointe South High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	97%
	54	East Grand Rapids	Rocky River High School	49%	upset
	55	Grosse Pointe North High School	West Bloomfield High School	76%
	56	Detroit Country Day School	Cranbrook Kingswood	90%
1	57	Grosse Pointe South High School	Rocky River High School	69%
1	58	East Grand Rapids	Grosse Pointe North High School	52%
1	59	Grosse Pointe South High School	Detroit Country Day School	84%
1	60	Rocky River High School	Grosse Pointe North High School	53%
1	61	Grosse Pointe South High School	East Grand Rapids	70%
1	62	Detroit Country Day School	Rocky River High School	32%	upset
1	63	Grosse Pointe South High School	Grosse Pointe North High School	72%
1	64	Detroit Country Day School	East Grand Rapids	30%	upset
1	65	Rocky River High School	East Grand Rapids	51%
1	66	Grosse Pointe North High School	Detroit Country Day School	69%
1	67	Cranbrook Kingswood	West Bloomfield High School	16%	upset
1	68	Cranbrook Kingswood	Olentangy Liberty High School	49%	upset
1	69	Olentangy Liberty High School	West Bloomfield High School	17%	upset
2	70	West Bloomfield High School	Cranbrook Kingswood	84%
2	71	Cranbrook Kingswood	Olentangy Liberty High School	49%	upset
2	72	West Bloomfield High School	Olentangy Liberty High School	83%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Blue Devils	1-2-5	def.	Norsemen	3-4-6
2	EGR Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Patriots	3-5-6 DNF
3	Pirates	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
4	Lakers Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	3-4-6
5	Norsemen	1-2-3	def.	EGR Varsity	4-5-6
6	Blue Devils	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
7	Lakers Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Patriots	1-5-6 DNF
8	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	3-4-6
9	EGR Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
10	Norsemen	1-2-5	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-6
11	Blue Devils	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
12	Cranbrook Blue	1-2-3	def.	Patriots	4-5-6 DNF
13	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-5-6
14	Pirates	2-3-4	def.	EGR Varsity	1-5-6
15	Norsemen	1-2-4	def.	Patriots	3-5-6
16	Blue Devils	1-2-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	3-4-6
17	Pirates	1-2-6	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-5
18	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Patriots	3-5-6
19	Blue Devils	1-2-5	def.	EGR Varsity	3-4-6
20	Norsemen	1-2-3	def.	Cranbrook Blue	4-5-6
21	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Patriots	3-4-6
22	Blue Devils	1-2-3	def.	Lakers Varsity	4-5-6
23	Norsemen	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
24	EGR Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Cranbrook Blue	4-5-6
25	Patriots	3-4-5	def.	Blue Devils	1-2-6 OCS
26	Norsemen	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
27	EGR Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-6
28	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Cranbrook Blue	2-5-6
29	Pirates	1-2-3	def.	Patriots	4-5-6
30	Blue Devils	1-2-3	def.	Lakers Varsity	4-5-6
31	EGR Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
32	Norsemen	1-2-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	3-4-6
33	Pirates	1-2-6	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-5
34	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Patriots	4-5-6
35	Blue Devils	1-2-5	def.	Norsemen	3-4-6
36	EGR Varsity	2-3-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	1-4-6
37	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Lakers Varsity	2-4-6
38	Norsemen	1-2-6	def.	Pirates	3-4-5
39	EGR Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Patriots	3-4-6
40	Blue Devils	1-3-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	2-4-6
41	Norsemen	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
42	EGR Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Lakers Varsity	4-5-6
43	Blue Devils	2-3-5	def.	Pirates	1-4-6
44	Cranbrook Blue	1-2-5	def.	Patriots	3-4-6
45	EGR Varsity	1-3-6	def.	Norsemen	2-4-5
46	Blue Devils	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
47	Lakers Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Patriots	2-5-6
48	Cranbrook Blue	1-4-5	def.	Pirates	2-3-6
49	EGR Varsity	1-4-5	def.	Blue Devils	2-3-6
50	Norsemen	2-3-4	def.	Patriots	1-5-6
51	Pirates	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
52	Cranbrook Blue	1-2-5	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-6
53	Blue Devils	1-2-3	def.	Patriots	4-5-6
54	EGR Varsity	1-4-5	def.	Pirates	2-3-6
55	Norsemen	1-2-4	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-5-6
56	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Cranbrook Blue	4-5-6
57	Blue Devils	1-3-4	def.	Pirates	2-5-6
58	EGR Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Norsemen	1-5-6
59	Blue Devils	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
60	Pirates	1-2-6	def.	Norsemen	3-4-5
61	Blue Devils	1-2-3	def.	EGR Varsity	4-5-6
62	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Pirates	1-5-6
63	Blue Devils	1-2-4	def.	Norsemen	3-5-6
64	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	EGR Varsity	1-5-6
65	Pirates	1-2-3	def.	EGR Varsity	4-5-6
66	Norsemen	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
67	Cranbrook Blue	1-3-6	def.	Lakers Varsity	2-4-5
68	Cranbrook Blue	1-2-4	def.	Patriots	3-5-6
69	Patriots	1-2-6	def.	Lakers Varsity	3-4-5
70	Lakers Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Cranbrook Blue	3-4-6
71	Cranbrook Blue	2-3-4	def.	Patriots	1-5-6
72	Lakers Varsity	1-3-6 DNF	def.	Patriots	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	Blake Stackpoole '18 Caroline Seski '17 Christiana Scheibner '19 John Walton '18	Grace Paschke '19 Jacob Orhan '17 Christiana Scheibner '19 Taft Peck '18 Kaitlin Malley '17
East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity	Graham Post '17 Justin Lovell '17 Luke Diehm '20	Simon Rockwell '20 Bella Kirchgessner '19 Ben Loos '17
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	Charlie Ramsdell '20 John Huskin '18 Lindsey Ramsdell '18	Mathew Moores '17 Teddy Prokop '19 Adam Weinkauf '18 John Godoshian '18 Ellie Frame '18
Rocky River High School	Pirates	Ian Moran '18 Jack Harris '17 Spencer Asmar '18	Margot Dugan '19 Libby Weixel '18 Natalie Dugan '18
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	Brian Liu '18 Connagh Rowley '18 Harrison George '18 Jacob Mackey '17 Liz Obermaier '17	Jacob Mackey '17 Kaya Donat '20 Lorraine Yuen '17 Connagh Rowley '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	Allison Glover '17 Amy Phenjati '18 Jimmy Chen '18	Katie Wei '18 Natalie Simmons '18 Lizzie Balsam '18
West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	Isabel Dziuba '19 Jack Bull '19 Nicole Millerman '19	Matthew Elliot '20 Bryce Vandenavond '19 Nolan Beaty '19
Olentangy Liberty High School	Patriots	Cameron Friedauer '20 Matt Halverson '18 Siri Schantz '19	Tom Oelkers '19 Emma Hetrick '18 Alex Richardson '20

Conditions — 04/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.8 kn

avg · max 9.0 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Olentangy Liberty — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Olentangy Liberty in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olentangy Liberty by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Olentangy Liberty: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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