Rocky River High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.21 (fleet 3.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–12 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 17–1 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 22–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 39–12 against 38.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-13 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.76 | 4.04 | 6–1 | 5.0 | +1.28 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 2018-03-24 | Spring Chill Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 5.92 | 11–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 5.3 | 1% |
| 2017-04-21 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | skipper | 2.76 | 2.23 | 10–8 | 11.4 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2017-04-08 | DCDS Team Race 4/8 | skipper | 2.75 | 1.44 | 12–3 | 13.7 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Westerville Classic | Crew | A | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| Spring Chill Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 100% | — |
| MISSA East Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.17 |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 2.72 |
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.5 | 1.64 |
| Foundry Spring #1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.1 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 2.41 |
| MISSA Autumn Classic | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| Hawken Sail Now Homework Later Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Foundry Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 16 | 3.4 | 3.44 |
| MISSA East Mallory Pre-Quals | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| DCDS Team Race 4/8 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ohio HS Sailing Conference Regatta #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| Ohio Conference Regatta #1 Tier 3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ian Moran |  Roger Williams University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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