| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Jelly Bean MIXED | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rocky River High School | Mixed | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Toon Squad | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | Warriors Black | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,841 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 45 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.636 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.03 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Bloomfield High School | 2.61 | 4.55 | 12–3 | 8.6 | +1.94 | 3.5 | 3% |
| 4 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.13 | 1.59 | 5–10 | 2.3 | +1.46 | 2.4 | 6% |
| 3 | Detroit Country Day School | 2.28 | 2.89 | 9–6 | 7.7 | +0.61 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 5 | Spring Lake High School | 1.17 | 0.82 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2 | Rocky River High School | 5.01 | 3.69 | 12–3 | 13.7 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 6 | Cranbrook Kingswood | 2.41 | -0.09 | 3–12 | 8.1 | −2.50 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bull | West Bloomfield High School | 0.97 | 2.92 | 12–3 | 8.6 | +1.94 | 3.5 | 3% |
| Nicole Millerman | West Bloomfield High School | 0.82 | 2.76 | 12–3 | 8.6 | +1.94 | 3.5 | 3% |
| Alek Roehl | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.28 | 1.74 | 5–10 | 2.3 | +1.46 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Patrick Monahan | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | -0.13 | 1.32 | 5–10 | 2.3 | +1.46 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Thomas Hamill | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.00 | 1.46 | 5–10 | 2.3 | +1.46 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Jacob Mackey | Detroit Country Day School | 0.62 | 1.24 | 9–6 | 7.7 | +0.61 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Kaya Donat | Detroit Country Day School | 0.08 | 0.70 | 9–6 | 7.7 | +0.61 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Claire Deblanc | Spring Lake High School | 0.62 | 0.27 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Ryan Peterson | Spring Lake High School | 0.44 | 0.09 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Preston Johnson | Spring Lake High School | 0.19 | -0.16 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jack Harris | Rocky River High School | 0.86 | -0.45 | 24–6 | 27.4 | −1.31 | 2.8 | 99% |
| Jimmy Chen | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.29 | -2.21 | 3–12 | 8.1 | −2.50 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Joe Devroy | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.94 | -1.56 | 3–12 | 8.1 | −2.50 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Matt Sullivan | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.88 | -1.62 | 3–12 | 8.1 | −2.50 | 6.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warriors Black | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Toon Squad | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Toon Squad | 1-2-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Warriors Black | 2-3-4 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Toon Squad | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Warriors Black | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Toon Squad | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Toon Squad | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Warriors Black | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Toon Squad | 1-3-4 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
CK Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Warriors Black | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
CK Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Toon Squad | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Toon Squad | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Toon Squad | 1-2-6 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
CK Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors Black | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Toon Squad | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jelly Bean MIXED | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
West Bloomfield High School | Jelly Bean MIXED | Isabel Dziuba '19 Jack Bull '19 Nicole Millerman '19 |
Bryce Vandenavond '19 Anthony Dziuba '21 Matthew Elliot '20 |
|
Rocky River High School | Mixed | Ian Moran '18 Jack Harris '17 |
Spencer Asmar '18 Natalie Dugan '18 Rachel Muny '18 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Toon Squad | Harrison George '18 Jacob Mackey '17 Kaya Donat '20 |
Amanda Williams '17 Ethan Lee '19 Connagh Rowley '18 |
|
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | Warriors Black | Alek Roehl '19 Patrick Monahan '17 Thomas Hamill '17 |
Zac Brown '20 Adam Sellers '17 Madison Paulus '20 |
|
Spring Lake High School | Red | Claire Deblanc '20 Preston Johnson '19 Ryan Peterson '20 |
Zoe Czadzeck '20 Zak Colvin '19 Kameron Norwood '19 |
|
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | Jimmy Chen '18 Joe Devroy '17 Matt Sullivan '18 |
Guy Busamrong '20 Mitchell Moulton '18 Vanessa Su '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
