Rocky River High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–14 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 34–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 34–14 against 38.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-21 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | skipper | 0.89 | 0.36 | 10–8 | 11.4 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2017-04-08 | DCDS Team Race 4/8 | skipper | 0.86 | -0.45 | 24–6 | 27.4 | −1.31 | 2.8 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.5 | -0.27 |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.4 | 0.37 |
| MISSA East Mallory Pre-Quals | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 0.83 |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Quals | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| DCDS Team Race 4/8 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ohio HS Conference #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 0.41 |
| Ohio Conference Regatta #1 Tier 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | 2.56 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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