MISSA East Mallory Pre-Quals

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 35 21 56
2 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 15 56 71
3 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 51 36 87
4 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 54 39 93
5 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 52 42 94
6 Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 57 51 108
7 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 50 66 116
8 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 61 62 123
9 Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 86 89 175
10 Lakewood High School (OH) Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers 90 88 178
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 2 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 15 Ian Moran '18
Natalie Dugan '18
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1 6 5 3 2 1 2 6 6 3 35 Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-10]
Jacob Orhan '17 [1-4]
Taft Peck '18 [5-8]
Grace Paschke '19 [9-10]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 7 8 10 4 8 2 3 5 1 2 50 Allison Glover '17 [1-10]
Katie Wei '18 [1-2]
Amy Phenjati '18 [3-10]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 4 3 3 8 4 8 7 3 3 8 51 Justin Lovell '17 [1-10]
Regan Pitts '18 [1-4]
Annika Lampen '21 [5-10]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 6 2 4 5 DNF 3 5 8 4 4 52 Harrison George '18 [1-10]
Kaya Donat '20 [1-8]
Jacob Mackey '17 [9-10]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3 7 7 2 5 5 4 7 9 5 54 John Huskin '18
Adam Weinkauf '18
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 5 5 8 7 3 6 8 4 5 6 57 Ryan Squires '17
Xiaojiao Hall '18
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 9 4 2 6 9 7 6 2 7 9 61 Jack Bull '19 [1-10]
Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [3-6]
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 10 10 6 9 6 9 9 9 8 10 86 Siri Schantz '19
Matt Halverson '18
Lakewood High School (OH) Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers 8 9 9 10 7 10 10 10 10 7 90 Luke Healy '18
Max Boland '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 3 2 2 3 1 1 6 1 1 1 21 John Walton '18
Kaitlin Malley '17
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 5 4 3 2 6 2 2 2 3 7 36 Graham Post '17 [1-10]
Bella Kirchgessner '19 [1-4]
Hazel Mcgovern '21 [5-10]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 4 1 4 5 3 6 1 5 4 6 39 Charlie Ramsdell '20 [1-10]
Mathew Moores '17 [1-6]
Ellie Frame '18 [7-10]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1 5 1 8 5 3 4 3 9 3 42 Liz Obermaier '17 [1-10]
Lorraine Yuen '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Jacob Mackey '17 [3-4]
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 6 3 8 9 2 4 3 9 5 2 51 Grace Squires '19
Gabby Mckellips '19
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 2 6 7 4 7 8 5 6 6 5 56 Jack Harris '17
Margot Dugan '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 8 9 9 1 4 5 7 8 7 4 62 Nicole Millerman '19 [1-10]
Nolan Beaty '19 [1-4]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Clara Babbitt '19 [7-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 7 8 5 6 9 9 8 4 2 8 66 Jimmy Chen '18 [1-10]
Natalie Simmons '18 [1-6]
Lizzie Balsam '18 [7-10]
Lakewood High School (OH) Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers 10 10 10 10 8 7 9 7 8 9 88 Parker Polen '20
Jack Wynn '20
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 9 7 6 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 89 Cameron Friedauer '20
Tom Oelkers '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue1133557799
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity224466881010
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity3355779911
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen446688101022
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils5577991133
Lakewood High School (OH)Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers668810102244
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Patriots7799113355
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates881010224466
Thomas Worthington High SchoolThomas Worthington High School Cardinals9911335577
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity101022446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue224466881010
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity3355779911
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity446688101022
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen5577991133
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils668810102244
Lakewood High School (OH)Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers7799113355
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Patriots881010224466
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates9911335577
Thomas Worthington High SchoolThomas Worthington High School Cardinals101022446688
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Allison Glover '17 [1-10] Katie Wei '18 [1-2]
Amy Phenjati '18 [3-10]
Cranbrook Blue Jimmy Chen '18 [1-10] Natalie Simmons '18 [1-6]
Lizzie Balsam '18 [7-10]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Harrison George '18 [1-10] Kaya Donat '20 [1-8]
Jacob Mackey '17 [9-10]
Varsity Liz Obermaier '17 [1-10] Lorraine Yuen '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Jacob Mackey '17 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Justin Lovell '17 [1-10] Regan Pitts '18 [1-4]
Annika Lampen '21 [5-10]
EGR Varsity Graham Post '17 [1-10] Bella Kirchgessner '19 [1-4]
Hazel Mcgovern '21 [5-10]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School John Huskin '18 Adam Weinkauf '18
Norsemen Charlie Ramsdell '20 [1-10] Mathew Moores '17 [1-6]
Ellie Frame '18 [7-10]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-10] Jacob Orhan '17 [1-4]
Taft Peck '18 [5-8]
Grace Paschke '19 [9-10]
Blue Devils John Walton '18 Kaitlin Malley '17
Lakewood High School (OH) Lakewood High School (OH) Luke Healy '18 Max Boland '19
Rangers Parker Polen '20 Jack Wynn '20
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Siri Schantz '19 Matt Halverson '18
Patriots Cameron Friedauer '20 Tom Oelkers '19
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Ian Moran '18 Natalie Dugan '18
Pirates Jack Harris '17 Margot Dugan '20
Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Ryan Squires '17 Xiaojiao Hall '18
Cardinals Grace Squires '19 Gabby Mckellips '19
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 [1-10] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [3-6]
Lakers Varsity Nicole Millerman '19 [1-10] Nolan Beaty '19 [1-4]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Clara Babbitt '19 [7-8]

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Olentangy Liberty/Olentangy Orange/Thomas Worthington: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olentangy Liberty/Olentangy Orange/Thomas Worthington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Olentangy Liberty/Olentangy Orange/Thomas Worthington: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →