Rocky River High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.49 (fleet -0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 18–4 (82%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 6–1 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 12–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 18–4 against 18.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-13 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | crew | 2.76 | 4.04 | 6–1 | 5.0 | +1.28 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 2017-04-08 | DCDS Team Race 4/8 | crew | 0.86 | -0.45 | 12–3 | 13.7 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | Crew | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 17 | 17.8 | -3.73 |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 4 | 12.5 | — |
| DCDS Team Race 4/8 | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ohio HS Sailing Conference Regatta #2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 0.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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