| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rocky River High School | Pirates | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 3–4 |
| 5 |  |
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Norsemen | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Cranbrook Blue | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | BRMS-black | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,304 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 28 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.333 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.73 ± 0.52: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.57 | 8.57 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 33% |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School | 3.45 | 4.86 | 5–2 | 3.6 | +1.41 | 1.1 | 22% |
| 2 | Rocky River High School | 4.63 | 5.91 | 6–1 | 5.0 | +1.28 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School | 2.86 | 2.91 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 5 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 3.25 | 2.85 | 3–4 | 3.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe North High School | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3–4 | 3.5 | −0.50 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 8 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | -1.70 | -4.70 | 0–7 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 7 | Cranbrook Kingswood | 3.21 | -0.38 | 1–6 | 3.4 | −3.60 | 3.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Pirates | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Norsemen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Pirates | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Pirates | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Pirates | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Pirates | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Pirates | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cranbrook Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Blue Devils | 1-4-6 | def. | |
Pirates | 2-3-5 DSQ |
| 26 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Cranbrook Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
BRMS-black | 3-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
