St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.96 (fleet 1.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–8 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 16–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 15–7 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | NIT (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.14 | 0.86 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2019-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.11 | 0.56 | 5–4 | 5.8 | −0.56 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2019-04-12 | MISSA East Baker - Pre Qualifier Tier 2 | skipper | 0.83 | 3.83 | 8–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 4.5 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 1.65 |
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.2 | 0.60 |
| Foundry Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.31 |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 0.67 |
| Fall Foundry #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 1.92 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Westerville Classic | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 1.31 |
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.3 | -0.61 |
| NIT (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| MISSA Silver sail-off | Skipper | TR | 2 | 50% | — |
| MISSA East Baker - Pre Qualifier Tier 2 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 0.16 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 0.07 |
| Foundry #2 Re Run | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 1.97 |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.58 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Westerville Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.0 | -1.30 |
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.9 | -1.60 |
| MISSA East Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | 0.31 |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.5 | -1.35 |
| Foundry #3 | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.2 | 1.99 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invite | Crew | B | 8 | 5.8 | — |
| Olentangy Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.2 | 1.33 |
| Foundry Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall #3 @ The Foundry | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 0.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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