| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 8–1 |
| 3 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 8–1 |
| 4 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 5–4 |
| 5 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 3–6 |
| 6 |  |
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
Bay High School | Varsity | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,616 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 15 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.622 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.63 ± 0.61: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 5.70 | 8.70 | 5–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 7% |
| 6 | West Bloomfield High School | 3.80 | 4.75 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.95 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 1 | St. George's School | 6.65 | 6.91 | 4–1 | 3.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 6 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 4.92 | 4.64 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 10 | Bay High School | 3.85 | 3.50 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.36 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 9 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 6.16 | 2.97 | 1–4 | 3.4 | −3.19 | 4.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.75 | 4.75 | 3–0 | 1.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Nicole Millerman | West Bloomfield High School | 1.11 | 2.05 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.95 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Tbo Antonietti | St. George's School | 2.06 | 2.31 | 4–1 | 3.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Will Carroll | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 1.35 | 1.07 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Jp Starck | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 1.14 | 0.86 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Jonathan Mack | Bay High School | 1.07 | 0.71 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.36 | 0.0 | 78% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bay High School | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 30% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | St. George's School | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 61% | |
| 1 | 6 | St. George's School | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 81% | |
| 1 | 8 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 43% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | Norfolk Collegiate School | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 66% | |
| 1 | 20 | West Bloomfield High School | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 14% | upset |
| 1 | 24 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 28% | upset |
| 1 | 25 | West Bloomfield High School | Bay High School | 49% | upset |
| 1 | 29 | St. George's School | Bay High School | 91% | |
| 1 | 30 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | West Bloomfield High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 33 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Bay High School | 83% | |
| 1 | 35 | St. George's School | West Bloomfield High School | 89% | |
| 1 | 39 | Norfolk Collegiate School | St. George's School | 37% | upset |
| 1 | 41 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Bay High School | 85% | |
| 1 | 45 | Norfolk Collegiate School | West Bloomfield High School | 75% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 OCS |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 25 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 26 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-3-6 |
| 35 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Oaks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 41 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Dragons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Dragons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mustangs | 2-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. George's School | Dragons | Hayden Earl '21 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 Sophie Fisher '22 Tbo Antonietti '20 |
Amelia Jessop '21 August Currier '20 Celia Byrne '20 Isabel Alex '21 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Alex Schuck '21 Chris Robertson '19 Harrison Thomson '22 Parker Purrington '19 Robert Chase '22 |
Adam Elci '22 Matt Wright '19 Sam Beck '21 Ray Domena '19 |
|
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | Isabel Dziuba '19 Matthew Elliott '20 Nicole Millerman '19 |
Walter Paliga '22 Jack Bull '19 Jake Elsen '21 |
|
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | Jp Starck '20 Spencer Barnes '20 Will Carroll '21 |
Ethan Fisher '22 Jp Wynne '20 Will Thornton '20 |
|
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | Liam Gronda '21 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21 |
Ryan Tatelbaum '21 Anna Grolleman '22 C. Augie Spendley '19 |
|
Bay High School | Varsity | Ellen Petrigan '22 Jack Vanderhorst '22 Jonathan Mack '22 |
Robert Mansuetto '21 Sadie Young '25 Ella Adelman '22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
