St. George's School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.39 (fleet 3.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–11 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 21–10 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 21–10 against 18.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | skipper | 2.69 | 2.91 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.38 | 3.11 | 15–5 | 12.9 | +0.73 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ Bristol, RI | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 2.31 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.4 | 2.21 |
| Baker Trophy 2022 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SG Fleet Race Practice | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 0.24 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 2.79 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta 2021 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 1.83 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State High School Sailing Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.4 | 1.85 |
| NIT (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones |  Hobart and William Smith Colleges |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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