Arnold Brown Regatta 2021

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 19 27 46
2 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 27 33 60
3 Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 46 24 70
4 Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 45 MRP 41 86 MRP
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 40 58 98
6 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 71 MRP 31 102 MRP
7 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 57 45 102
8 Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 63 48 111
9 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 54 68 122
10 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 58 65 123
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 6 19 Sophie Fisher '22
Hope Breslin '22
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 3 3 6 5 4 2 1 3 27 Olin Guck '22 [1-4]
Gus Macaulay '23 [5-8]
Nate Schneider '22 [1-4]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 7 8 1 7 2 9 4 2 40 Eva Ermlich '22
Gregg O'Rourke '22
Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 1 2 3 1 3 1 6 8 45 MRP Ryan Mcgauley '23
Emma Zuccotti '23
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 10 6 9 6 7 4 3 1 46 Alton Coolidge '22 [1-4]
Toby Clarkson '24 [5-8]
Piper Carleton '24 [1-4]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 6 10 8 4 9 5 8 4 54 Ashley Hoguet '23
Nick Thibodeau '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 8 5 5 3 10 6 10 10 57 Miles Wolff '22 [1-4]
Simon Hammarlund '24 [5-8]
Henry Kyburg Abbott '23 [1-4]
Delilah Hammarlund '22 [5-6]
Lyla Solway '24 [7-8]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 4 7 10 10 5 8 7 7 58 Tess Straw '24
Jack Mccormick '24
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 9 9 4 9 8 10 9 5 63 Eric Kim '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Helen Brewer '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Sean Morrison '22 [1-2]
Inbal Alkalay '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Henry Do '23 [5-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 5 4 7 8 6 7 5 9 71 MRP Gavin Monaghan` '22
Harrison Vose '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 1 4 2 2 7 5 2 1 24 Bobby Clarkson '23
Kate Mason '23
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 5 2 5 1 2 2 7 3 27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 [1-4]
Jack Bolton '23 [5-8]
Chloe Chisholm '23 [1-4]
Henry Breslin '23 [5-8]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 2 3 6 7 5 3 1 4 31 Madeline Koelbel '22 [1-8]
Greta Klein '22 [1-4]
Andrew Tenney '23 [5-8]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 3 5 1 3 4 6 9 2 33 Brendan Jay '23 [1-4]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [5-8]
Jack Culton '22 [1-4]
Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 6 6 4 4 8 1 6 6 41 Daniel Siegel '22
Cate Anderson '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 4 7 3 5 1 7 8 10 45 Sam Riley '23 [1-6]
Yossi Monahan '24 [7-8]
Griffin Stead '23 [1-4]
Charlotte Watts '25 [5-6]
Walker Brescia '24 [7-8]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 7 1 10 10 3 4 5 8 48 Lila Groulx '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Liu '23 [3-4, 8]
Henry Do '23 [7]
Venya Gupta '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Zander Lai '23 [3-4, 8]
Sean Morrison '22 [7]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 8 7 6 9 10 4 5 58 Posie Cabaniss '23
Jack Taylor '23
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 8 9 8 9 6 8 10 7 65 Story Straw '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Sage Evans '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Cora Johnson '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 10 10 9 8 10 9 3 9 68 Aeva Salem '25 [1-8]
Courtney Hoguet '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Benedetto '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles11335577
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers2210108866
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons33557799
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles4422101088
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons55779911
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders6644221010
Milton AcademyMilton Academy Mustangs77991133
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs88664422
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity99113355
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons1010886644

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles22446688
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers11997755
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons4466881010
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles33119977
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons6688101022
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders55331199
Milton AcademyMilton Academy Mustangs8810102244
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs77553311
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity1010224466
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons99775533
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barrington High School Barrington High School Olin Guck '22 [1-4]
Gus Macaulay '23 [5-8]
Nate Schneider '22 [1-4]
Eagles Brendan Jay '23 [1-4]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [5-8]
Jack Culton '22 [1-4]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Tess Straw '24 Jack Mccormick '24
Capers Story Straw '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Sage Evans '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Cora Johnson '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Gavin Monaghan` '22 Harrison Vose '22
Dragons Madeline Koelbel '22 [1-8] Greta Klein '22 [1-4]
Andrew Tenney '23 [5-8]
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Alton Coolidge '22 [1-4]
Toby Clarkson '24 [5-8]
Piper Carleton '24 [1-4]
Eagles Bobby Clarkson '23 Kate Mason '23
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Ashley Hoguet '23 Nick Thibodeau '23
Fishwagons Aeva Salem '25 [1-8] Courtney Hoguet '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Benedetto '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Miles Wolff '22 [1-4]
Simon Hammarlund '24 [5-8]
Henry Kyburg Abbott '23 [1-4]
Delilah Hammarlund '22 [5-6]
Lyla Solway '24 [7-8]
Vineyarders Sam Riley '23 [1-6]
Yossi Monahan '24 [7-8]
Griffin Stead '23 [1-4]
Charlotte Watts '25 [5-6]
Walker Brescia '24 [7-8]
Milton Academy Milton Academy Ryan Mcgauley '23 Emma Zuccotti '23
Mustangs Daniel Siegel '22 Cate Anderson '23
Portland High School Portland High School Eva Ermlich '22 Gregg O'Rourke '22
Bulldogs Posie Cabaniss '23 Jack Taylor '23
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eric Kim '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Helen Brewer '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Sean Morrison '22 [1-2]
Inbal Alkalay '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Henry Do '23 [5-6]
Varsity Lila Groulx '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Liu '23 [3-4, 8]
Henry Do '23 [7]
Venya Gupta '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Zander Lai '23 [3-4, 8]
Sean Morrison '22 [7]
St. George's School St. George's School Sophie Fisher '22 Hope Breslin '22
Dragons Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 [1-4]
Jack Bolton '23 [5-8]
Chloe Chisholm '23 [1-4]
Henry Breslin '23 [5-8]

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 26.8 kn
From NNE (17°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1015.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Martha's Vineyard RHS: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Martha's Vineyard RHS by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Martha's Vineyard RHS: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →