Sharon High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.02 (fleet 1.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–11 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 5–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 5–11 against 6.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | skipper | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–9 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2022-04-24 | Linda Juliano Girls TR Tourney '22 | skipper | 1.09 | 1.09 | 5–2 | 5.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @Milton/BCH | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 0.05 |
| National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 0% | — |
| Linda Juliano Girls TR Tourney '22 | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| 2022 Sharon Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | -0.10 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Arnold Brown Regatta 2021 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 1.60 |
| 2021 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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