Milton Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 12–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 12–3 against 9.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 0.93 | 2.05 | 12–3 | 9.7 | +1.12 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @Milton/BCH | Crew | B | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 8.6 | — |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Barnstable | Crew | B | 4 | 1.5 | — |
| NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Crew | B | 7 | 4.1 | — |
| 2022 Phebe King Memorial Trophy Regatta | Crew | B | 5 | 13.0 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Arnold Brown Regatta 2021 | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall Funfes (Gleekman Regatta) | Crew | B | 3 | 8.3 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Milton | Crew | A | 2 | 2.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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