| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | 12–2 |
| 2 |  |
Mater Dei High School | MONARCHS | 11–3 |
| 3 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 10–4 |
| 4 |  |
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | 8–6 |
| 5 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 7–4 |
| 6 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 6–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 6–5 |
| 8 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 4–7 |
| 9 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 4–7 |
| 10 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 3–8 |
| 11 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 1–10 |
| 12 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 0–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,745 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 72 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.451 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.28: an orderly event, more orderly than 63% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Immaculata La Salle High School | 9.62 | 11.19 | 12–2 | 9.4 | +1.57 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 5 | Christchurch School | 8.33 | 9.22 | 7–4 | 5.5 | +0.89 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2 | Mater Dei High School | 9.90 | 10.45 | 11–3 | 10.0 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 4 | The Hotchkiss School | 8.74 | 9.06 | 8–6 | 7.3 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 9 | Lake Forest High School | 7.35 | 7.58 | 4–7 | 3.6 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 7 | St. George's School | 8.41 | 8.64 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 10 | Clear Falls High School | 6.75 | 6.97 | 3–8 | 2.7 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 6 | Point Loma High School | 8.87 | 8.59 | 6–5 | 6.5 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 3 | Severn School | 10.20 | 9.86 | 10–4 | 10.6 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 11 | Roosevelt High School | 6.23 | 5.19 | 1–10 | 1.9 | −1.04 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 8 | Ransom Everglades School | 8.56 | 7.38 | 4–7 | 6.0 | −1.19 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 12 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 6.92 | 3.92 | 0–11 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro | Christchurch School | 3.38 | 4.27 | 7–4 | 5.5 | +0.89 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Jeb Bechtel | The Hotchkiss School | 2.69 | 3.01 | 8–6 | 7.3 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Ava Anderson | Clear Falls High School | 2.02 | 2.26 | 6–15 | 5.3 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Charlie Gish | Lake Forest High School | 2.53 | 2.76 | 4–7 | 3.6 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 52% |
| Ian Nyenhuis | Point Loma High School | 2.79 | 1.43 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.35 | 0.5 | 94% |
| Doug Cowan | Grosse Pointe South High School | 2.31 | -0.69 | 0–11 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
MONARCHS | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bearcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
MONARCHS | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bearcats | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bearcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Dragons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 2-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Royal Lions | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 2-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Bearcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-3-6 |
| 53 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 58 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Pointers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 61 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-5-6 |
| 62 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 66 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 67 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bearcats | 4-5-6 |
| 69 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-6 |
| 70 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 71 | |
MONARCHS | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 1-4-6 |
| 72 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
