Point Loma High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02 (fleet 3.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–7 (61%) as crew 4–1 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–7 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 4–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 15–8 against 14.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | PCISA Team Race Championship - Baker Elims | skipper | 2.64 | 2.69 | 11–7 | 10.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | crew | 2.83 | 4.04 | 4–1 | 3.1 | +1.20 | 0.6 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Race Championship - Baker Elims | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| PCISA Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 1.54 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - HS Gold | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 2.07 |
| 2022 Sea Otter Regatta - Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.7 | 1.37 |
| 2022 PCISA Anteater Regatta - Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 3.35 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 1.33 |
| Baker Trophy 2022 | Crew | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| 2022 Golden Bear - GOLD | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.2 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Anteater Gold | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.0 | 2.54 |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - High School Gold | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 2.00 |
| 2019-20 PCISA SoCal 2 Gold | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 2.64 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noah Nyenhuis |  San Diego State University |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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