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PCISA Team Race Championship - Baker Elims

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 15–3
2 San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Knights 12–6
3 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers 11–7
4 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3–15
5 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 42 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.484 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Mater Dei High School
MONARCHS		110.16
school −0.17		Morgan Pinckney / Vera Allen 3.48
Reade Decker / Hannah Crompton 3.49
Chase Decker / Ashtyn Tierney 3.27		84%15–3 (83%)−0.1
2San Marcos High School
Knights		37.95Blake Behrens / Teo Lee
Zoey Ziskind / Hope Campbell 2.65
Carly Kieding / Catalina Matlock-Klein		40%12–6 (67%)+4.7
3Point Loma High School
Pointers		28.88
school +0.10		Ian Nyenhuis / Jonah Wozniak 3.21
Cam Spriggs / Preston Miller
Noah Nyenhuis / Julia Stewart		60%11–7 (61%)+0.1
4Corona del Mar High School
Sea Kings		47.43Dylan Sih / Ashley Highland 2.99
Piper Blackband / Taylor Bartell 2.44
Michael Sentovich / Isabella Clark		30%3–15 (17%)−2.5
5Newport Harbor High School
Sailors		57.14
school +0.21		Dillion Garcia / Elsa Wiley
Tate Oyler / Samantha Villard
Ethan Simpson / Shay Wood 2.80		28%1–11 (8%)−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2San Marcos High School7.959.6112–67.3+1.664.41%
3Point Loma High School8.888.9311–710.9+0.050.059%
1Mater Dei High School10.1610.1115–315.1−0.050.067%
4Corona del Mar High School7.436.333–155.4−1.101.495%
5Newport Harbor High School7.145.191–113.3−1.952.298%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Dillion GarciaNewport Harbor High School2.050.101–113.3−1.952.298%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Point Loma High SchoolCorona del Mar High School76%
12Mater Dei High SchoolNewport Harbor High School92%
13San Marcos High SchoolCorona del Mar High School56%
14Mater Dei High SchoolPoint Loma High School74%
15Newport Harbor High SchoolCorona del Mar High School44%upset
16San Marcos High SchoolPoint Loma High School30%upset
17Mater Dei High SchoolCorona del Mar High School89%
18San Marcos High SchoolNewport Harbor High School64%
19Point Loma High SchoolNewport Harbor High School79%
110Mater Dei High SchoolSan Marcos High School86%
211Point Loma High SchoolCorona del Mar High School76%
212Mater Dei High SchoolNewport Harbor High School91%
213San Marcos High SchoolCorona del Mar High School59%
214Mater Dei High SchoolPoint Loma High School73%
215Corona del Mar High SchoolNewport Harbor High School55%
216San Marcos High SchoolPoint Loma High School32%upset
217Mater Dei High SchoolCorona del Mar High School89%
218San Marcos High SchoolNewport Harbor High School64%
219Point Loma High SchoolNewport Harbor High School79%
220Mater Dei High SchoolSan Marcos High School85%
321Point Loma High SchoolCorona del Mar High School75%
322Mater Dei High SchoolNewport Harbor High School91%
323San Marcos High SchoolCorona del Mar High School60%
324Point Loma High SchoolMater Dei High School27%upset
325Corona del Mar High SchoolNewport Harbor High School55%
326San Marcos High SchoolPoint Loma High School33%upset
327Mater Dei High SchoolCorona del Mar High School89%
328San Marcos High SchoolNewport Harbor High School65%
329Point Loma High SchoolNewport Harbor High School79%
330Mater Dei High SchoolSan Marcos High School84%
431Point Loma High SchoolSan Marcos High School67%
432Mater Dei High SchoolCorona del Mar High School89%
433San Marcos High SchoolCorona del Mar High School61%
434Mater Dei High SchoolPoint Loma High School73%
435Point Loma High SchoolCorona del Mar High School75%
436San Marcos High SchoolMater Dei High School16%upset
437Point Loma High SchoolSan Marcos High School67%
438Mater Dei High SchoolCorona del Mar High School89%
439Corona del Mar High SchoolSan Marcos High School39%upset
440Mater Dei High SchoolPoint Loma High School73%
441Point Loma High SchoolCorona del Mar High School75%
442San Marcos High SchoolMater Dei High School16%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
2 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 4-5-6
3 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-4-5
4 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-5 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 3-4-6
5 Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1-2-4 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-5-6
6 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-4 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 3-5-6
7 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
8 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3-4-5
9 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 4-5-6
10 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. San Marcos High School Knights 4-5-6
11 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-4 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-5-6
12 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-3-4 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2-5-6
13 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
14 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2-3-4 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 1-5-6
15 Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1-2-5 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3-4-6
16 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 3-4-5
17 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-5 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-4-6
18 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-5 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3-4-6
19 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-6 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3-4-5
20 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. San Marcos High School Knights 4-5-6
21 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
22 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-5 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3-4-6
23 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-4-5
24 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-5 def. Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 3-4-6
25 Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2-3-4 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1-5-6
26 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 3-4-5
27 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
28 San Marcos High School Knights 2-3-4 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1-5-6
29 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. Newport Harbor High School Sailors 4-5-6
30 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. San Marcos High School Knights 4-5-6
31 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-5 def. San Marcos High School Knights 3-4-6
32 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
33 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-5 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3-4-6
34 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-5 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 3-4-6
35 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
36 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 3-4-5
37 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-2-3 def. San Marcos High School Knights 4-5-6
38 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1-2-3 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4-5-6
39 Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1-4-5 def. San Marcos High School Knights 2-3-6
40 Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2-3-4 def. Point Loma High School Pointers 1-5-6
41 Point Loma High School Pointers 1-4-5 def. Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2-3-6
42 San Marcos High School Knights 1-2-6 def. Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 3-4-5

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1011.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Dos Pueblos/San Marcos/Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Dos Pueblos/San Marcos/Santa Barbara in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dos Pueblos/San Marcos/Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Dos Pueblos/San Marcos/Santa Barbara: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →