2022 Golden Bear - GOLD

HostAlameda
Date02/26/2022
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 1	15	12	27
2	Point Loma High School	Pointers 2	38	16	54
3	Point Loma High School	Pointers 1	36	25	61
4	Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 2	33	30	63
5	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	46	23	69
6	Point Loma High School	Pointers 3	35	36	71
7	Santa Barbara High School	Dons	23	52	75
8	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	45	34	79
9	San Marcos High School	Knights	30	57	87
10	Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 2	53	59	112
11	Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 1	55	62	117
12	Parker	Parker 1	37	80	117
13	Coronado Islanders	Nado	63	67	130
14	Redwood	Giants 1	83	71	154
15	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	78	78	156
16	Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	83	73	156
17	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	95	71	166
18	Parker	Parker 2	90	79	169
19	Stevenson School	Pirates	89	86	175
20	Acalanes High School	Dons	94	82	176
21	Vikings	Vikings	90 MRP	97 MRP	187 MRP
22	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	79	110	189
23	Redwood	Giants 2	111	100	211

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 1	5	1	6	1	2	15	Morgan Pinckney '23 Vera Allen '23
Santa Barbara High School	Dons	2	4	4	4	9	23	Ryan Satterberg '22 Crue Ziskind '25
San Marcos High School	Knights	8	8	10	3	1	30	Blake Behrens '23 Teo Lee '26
Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 2	1	12	7	7	6	33	Chase Decker '24 Ashtyn Tierney '24
Point Loma High School	Pointers 3	14	7	2	8	4	35	Calvin Schmid '22 [1-3] Alice Schmid '23 [4-5] Alice Schmid '23 [1-3] Avery Hogue '24 [4-5]
Point Loma High School	Pointers 1	9	2	1	13	11	36	Peter Busch '22 Preston Miller '24
Parker	Parker 1	6	13	9	2	7	37	Peter Joslin '22 Dominic Ciccimaro '25
Point Loma High School	Pointers 2	4	6	8	5	15	38	Kelly Holhus '23 Skye Terrell '25
Dos Pueblos	Chargers	12	11	5	14	3	45	Zoey Ziskind '23 Bodhi Harper '24
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	7	5	14	10	10	46	Tyler Wood '22 Ashley Highland '23
Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 2	16	15	3	11	8	53	Sophia Devling '22 Elsa Wiley '23
Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 1	3	3	12	16	21	55	Ethan Simpson '23 [1-3] Jake Johansson '23 [4] Shay Wood '23 [5] Shay Wood '23 [1-4] Jake Johansson '23 [5]
Coronado Islanders	Nado	18	18	13	9	5	63	Tommy Rudowicz '24 [1-5] Stella Taherian '23 [1-3] Isabella Loiselle '24 [4-5]
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	15	17	18	15	13	78	Piper Blackband '24 Taylor Bartell '24
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	10	16	20	19	14	79	Claudia Arriaga '23 Avery Fretwell '23
Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	20	10	22	12	19	83	Sarah Ozaki '25 [1-5] Alex Markworth '25 [1-3] Mia Bohlin '24 [4-5]
Redwood	Giants 1	DSQ	9	11	17	22	83	Connor Bennett '22 Katherine Norris '22
Stevenson School	Pirates	13	21	19	18	18	89	Carmen Berg '22 Lilah Parker '22
Vikings	Vikings	11	22	15	6	16	90 MRP
Parker	Parker 2	21	14	17	21	17	90	Shea Mcgrath '23 [1-5] Kate Joslin '24 [1-3, 5] Samantha Katz '24 [4]
Acalanes High School	Dons	17	19	23	23	12	94	Brendan Connelly '23 Molly Connelly '26
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	19	20	16	20	20	95	Catalina Brody '24 Katelyn Chang '27
Redwood	Giants 2	22	23	21	22	23	111	Jim Young '23 [1-5] Blake Oberbauer '26 [1-3] Allison Lee '23 [4-5]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 1	2	2	6	1	1	12	Reade Decker '23 Sophia Mulvania '22
Point Loma High School	Pointers 2	3	1	2	5	5	16	Harrison Strom '24 Samantha Gardner '23
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	6	7	3	4	3	23	Dylan Sih '24 Sophia Pearce '22
Point Loma High School	Pointers 1	1	3	1	2	18	25	Ian Nyenhuis '25 Jonah Wozniak '25
Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS 2	4	4	9	7	6	30	Tate Christopher '25 Kennedy Leehealey '22
Dos Pueblos	Chargers	7	5	12	3	7	34	Oliver Stokke '22 Catalina Matlock-Klein '23
Point Loma High School	Pointers 3	9	6	4	8	9	36	Noah Nyenhuis '23 Maggie Fleming '23
Santa Barbara High School	Dons	5	11	5	11	20	52	Liam Andresen '22 Magne Henriques '24
San Marcos High School	Knights	15	13	15	10	4	57	Carly Kieding '25 Hope Campbell '24
Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 2	8	10	8	12	21	59	Conrad Cook '25 Dillion Garcia '23
Newport Harbor High School	Sailors 1	10	18	7	14	13	62	Jack Roman '22 Quinn Gladstone-Lamas '22
Coronado Islanders	Nado	11	20	16	6	14	67	Lina Carper '23 [1-5] Kristin Hawkin '24 [1-4] Wyatt Riebe '24 [5]
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	14	12	13	9	23	71	Wills Stratton '25 Oliver '27
Redwood	Giants 1	20	17	10	22	2	71	Hailey Thompson '23 Hannah Sellers '22
Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	12	19	17	13	12	73	Kaden Miller '25 [1-5] Alister Muto '25 [1-4] Adelaide Hall '23 [5]
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	21	21	11	17	8	78	Connor Chung '22 Isabella Clark '25
Parker	Parker 2	13	14	18	18	16	79	Ava Gustafson '24 Annika Baumgartner '24
Parker	Parker 1	16	9	22	16	17	80	Joey Richardson '24 Charlotte Plant '24
Acalanes High School	Dons	19	15	19	19	10	82	Chase Englehart '22 Jenna Englehart '24
Stevenson School	Pirates	18	22	20	15	11	86	Ryder Weston '23 Ryan Marquess '22
Vikings	Vikings	17	8	14	23	15	97 MRP
Redwood	Giants 2	23	16	21	21	19	100	Reid Willens '22 Nathan Posard '26
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	22	23	23	20	22	110	Max Sellay '25 [1-2] Enzo Loth '25 [3-5] Peter Moreau '24 [1-2] Yvonne Stenehjem '25 [3-5]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Acalanes High School Dons	64	64	62	62	60
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	63	63	61	61	59
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	62	62	60	60	58
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	61	61	59	59	57
Coronado Islanders Nado	60	60	58	58	56
Dos Pueblos Chargers	59	59	57	57	55
Parker Parker 1	52	52	50	50	48
Parker Parker 2	51	51	49	49	47
Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1	58	58	56	56	54
Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2	57	57	55	55	53
Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	56	56	54	54	52
Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	55	55	53	53	51
Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	54	54	52	52	50
Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	53	53	51	51	49
Point Loma High School Pointers 1	50	50	48	48	46
Point Loma High School Pointers 2	49	49	47	47	45
Point Loma High School Pointers 3	48	48	46	46	44
Redwood Giants 1	47	47	45	45	43
Redwood Giants 2	46	46	44	44	42
San Marcos High School Knights	45	45	43	43	64
Santa Barbara High School Dons	44	44	42	42	63
Vikings Vikings	43	43	64	64	62
Stevenson School Pirates	42	42	63	63	61

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Acalanes High School Dons	63	63	61	61	59
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	62	62	60	60	58
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	61	61	59	59	57
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	60	60	58	58	56
Coronado Islanders Nado	59	59	57	57	55
Dos Pueblos Chargers	58	58	56	56	54
Parker Parker 1	51	51	49	49	47
Parker Parker 2	50	50	48	48	46
Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1	57	57	55	55	53
Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2	56	56	54	54	52
Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	55	55	53	53	51
Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	54	54	52	52	50
Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	53	53	51	51	49
Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	52	52	50	50	48
Point Loma High School Pointers 1	49	49	47	47	45
Point Loma High School Pointers 2	48	48	46	46	44
Point Loma High School Pointers 3	47	47	45	45	43
Redwood Giants 1	46	46	44	44	42
Redwood Giants 2	45	45	43	43	64
San Marcos High School Knights	44	44	42	42	63
Santa Barbara High School Dons	43	43	64	64	62
Vikings Vikings	42	42	63	63	61
Stevenson School Pirates	64	64	62	62	60

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Brendan Connelly '23	Molly Connelly '26
Dons	Chase Englehart '22	Jenna Englehart '24
Cathedral Catholic High School	Claudia Arriaga '23	Avery Fretwell '23
Dons	Max Sellay '25 [1-2] Enzo Loth '25 [3-5]	Peter Moreau '24 [1-2] Yvonne Stenehjem '25 [3-5]
Corona del Mar High School	Piper Blackband '24	Taylor Bartell '24
Sea Kings 1	Connor Chung '22	Isabella Clark '25
Corona del Mar High School	Tyler Wood '22	Ashley Highland '23
Sea Kings 2	Dylan Sih '24	Sophia Pearce '22
Coronado Islanders	Tommy Rudowicz '24 [1-5]	Stella Taherian '23 [1-3] Isabella Loiselle '24 [4-5]
Nado	Lina Carper '23 [1-5]	Kristin Hawkin '24 [1-4] Wyatt Riebe '24 [5]
Dos Pueblos	Zoey Ziskind '23	Bodhi Harper '24
Chargers	Oliver Stokke '22	Catalina Matlock-Klein '23
Mater Dei High School	Morgan Pinckney '23	Vera Allen '23
MONARCHS 1	Reade Decker '23	Sophia Mulvania '22
Mater Dei High School	Chase Decker '24	Ashtyn Tierney '24
MONARCHS 2	Tate Christopher '25	Kennedy Leehealey '22
Mission Bay High School	Sarah Ozaki '25 [1-5]	Alex Markworth '25 [1-3] Mia Bohlin '24 [4-5]
Buccaneer	Kaden Miller '25 [1-5]	Alister Muto '25 [1-4] Adelaide Hall '23 [5]
Newport Harbor High School	Ethan Simpson '23 [1-3] Jake Johansson '23 [4] Shay Wood '23 [5]	Shay Wood '23 [1-4] Jake Johansson '23 [5]
Sailors 1	Jack Roman '22	Quinn Gladstone-Lamas '22
Newport Harbor High School	Sophia Devling '22	Elsa Wiley '23
Sailors 2	Conrad Cook '25	Dillion Garcia '23
Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Catalina Brody '24	Katelyn Chang '27
Pacific Palisades Ch	Wills Stratton '25	Oliver '27
Parker	Peter Joslin '22	Dominic Ciccimaro '25
Parker 1	Joey Richardson '24	Charlotte Plant '24
Parker	Shea Mcgrath '23 [1-5]	Kate Joslin '24 [1-3, 5] Samantha Katz '24 [4]
Parker 2	Ava Gustafson '24	Annika Baumgartner '24
Point Loma High School	Peter Busch '22	Preston Miller '24
Pointers 1	Ian Nyenhuis '25	Jonah Wozniak '25
Point Loma High School	Kelly Holhus '23	Skye Terrell '25
Pointers 2	Harrison Strom '24	Samantha Gardner '23
Point Loma High School	Calvin Schmid '22 [1-3] Alice Schmid '23 [4-5]	Alice Schmid '23 [1-3] Avery Hogue '24 [4-5]
Pointers 3	Noah Nyenhuis '23	Maggie Fleming '23
Redwood	Connor Bennett '22	Katherine Norris '22
Giants 1	Hailey Thompson '23	Hannah Sellers '22
Redwood	Jim Young '23 [1-5]	Blake Oberbauer '26 [1-3] Allison Lee '23 [4-5]
Giants 2	Reid Willens '22	Nathan Posard '26
San Marcos High School	Blake Behrens '23	Teo Lee '26
Knights	Carly Kieding '25	Hope Campbell '24
Santa Barbara High School	Ryan Satterberg '22	Crue Ziskind '25
Dons	Liam Andresen '22	Magne Henriques '24
Stevenson School	Carmen Berg '22	Lilah Parker '22
Pirates	Ryder Weston '23	Ryan Marquess '22

Conditions — 02/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1027.7 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 4.5 kn

Gusts to 11.5 kn

From W (273°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine7.9 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1027.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Alameda: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.16

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alameda by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Alameda, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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