Lake Forest High School '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 50.35 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.89 (fleet 1.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 38–13 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | — | 20–8 |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | — | 18–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 38–13 against 36.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | crew | 2.53 | 2.76 | 4–7 | 3.6 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2022-04-30 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.43 | 3.33 | 8–1 | 7.3 | +0.90 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 2022-04-09 | MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | crew | 2.35 | 5.35 | 8–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 35% |
| 2021-05-01 | MISSA Baker | crew | 2.33 | 1.74 | 7–3 | 7.8 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2021-04-10 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.15 | 2.17 | 11–2 | 11.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Paige Roby |  Boston College |
'26 |
| ISSA | Paige Roby |  Glenbrook South High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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