| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 7–2 |
| 4 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 5–4 |
| 5 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Blue | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Traverse City Central | TCC Varsity Black | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 2–7 |
| 10 |  |
Westerville North High School | Varsity | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,491 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 46 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.599 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.41 ± 0.37: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 20% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 4.96 | 7.38 | 8–1 | 5.3 | +2.41 | 3.2 | 5% |
| 5 | Cranbrook Kingswood | 3.66 | 4.98 | 5–4 | 3.0 | +1.33 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.41 | 6.67 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.27 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 8 | Traverse City Central | 3.30 | 3.67 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 4 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 4.84 | 4.84 | 5–4 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 6 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 4.48 | 4.16 | 4–5 | 4.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 10 | Westerville North High School | 2.42 | 1.83 | 1–8 | 1.5 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 3 | Lake Forest High School | 6.16 | 5.57 | 7–3 | 7.8 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 7 | Latin School of Chicago | 4.78 | 3.47 | 3–6 | 4.9 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 9 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.92 | 2.63 | 2–7 | 5.1 | −2.29 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Vogel | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.19 | 3.08 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.89 | 1.4 | 20% |
| Henry Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.88 | 3.21 | 5–4 | 3.0 | +1.33 | 1.5 | 13% |
| Charlie Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.58 | 2.91 | 5–4 | 3.0 | +1.33 | 1.5 | 13% |
| Ryan Michalak | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.20 | 1.53 | 5–4 | 3.0 | +1.33 | 1.5 | 13% |
| Doug Cowan | Grosse Pointe South High School | 2.11 | 3.38 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.27 | 1.1 | 20% |
| Abigail Paul | Traverse City Central | 0.68 | 1.05 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Colin Gordon | Traverse City Central | 0.55 | 0.92 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Wyatt Harley | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.53 | 1.54 | 5–4 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Will Carroll | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 2.24 | 1.92 | 4–5 | 4.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Brendon Smucker | Westerville North High School | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1–8 | 1.5 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Charlie Gish | Lake Forest High School | 2.33 | 1.74 | 7–3 | 7.8 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Mike Wissink | Latin School of Chicago | 1.72 | 0.41 | 3–6 | 4.9 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Luke Goldman | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 0.96 | -1.33 | 2–7 | 5.1 | −2.29 | 3.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
TCC Varsity Black | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Romans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Scouts | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Skippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Romans | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Romans | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
TCC Varsity Black | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Skippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-4-5 |
| 39 | |
TCC Varsity Black | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Romans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
TCC Varsity Black | 2-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
