Westerville North High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 (fleet 0.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–10 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 5–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 5–10 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-01 | MISSA Baker | skipper | 0.09 | -0.50 | 1–8 | 1.5 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2021-04-16 | MISSA Ohio Baker Pre-qualifier | skipper | -0.08 | 1.45 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +1.53 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Season | |||||
| Ohio MISSA Mallory Pre-qualifier | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.3 | -0.70 |
| Fall 2021 Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.4 | -0.82 |
| Steve Nearing Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.1 | 0.39 |
| Pat S. Parker JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 1.86 |
| MISSA Ohio Great Lakes Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 0.15 |
| Friday Night Lights: Hoover! | Crew | A | 4 | 17.8 | — |
| Spring 2021 Season | |||||
| Ohio State Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.2 | -0.59 |
| MISSA Ohio Baker Pre-qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| MISSA Baker | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Last Dance Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | -2.36 |
| Foundry #2 Spring Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | -2.31 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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