| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Westerville North High School | Varsity | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Olentangy Liberty High School | Patriots | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Thomas Worthington High School | Cardinals | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,124 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.384 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.53 ± 0.64: a typical event, more orderly than 80% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats | 1 | 3.04 school +0.15 | Will Carroll / Joe Lavelle 1.61 Eric Pohl / Gavin Hirz Charles Pohl / Luke Zidar | 79% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.3 |
| 2 | Westerville North High School Varsity | 3 | 1.31 | Brendon Smucker / Brinn Faulkner Noah Olsen / Sam Heighway Fisher Howe / Alex Hedrick | 42% | 4–2 (67%) | +1.5 |
| 3 | Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots | 2 | 2.10 | Emily Williams / Brady Smith 0.25 Emma Friedauer / Alec Kingsley Porter Martin / Kyle Burkey | 60% | 2–4 (33%) | −1.6 |
| 4 | Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals | 4 | 0.14 | Emma Hutchings / Cassidy Hopcraft Marshall Wellejus / Bryce Ray Kyle Bruce / Leighton Calfee | 19% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 3.04 | 6.04 | 6–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
| 2 | Westerville North High School | 1.31 | 2.85 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +1.53 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 3 | Olentangy Liberty High School | 2.10 | 0.42 | 2–4 | 3.6 | −1.68 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 4 | Thomas Worthington High School | 0.14 | -2.86 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carroll | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 1.61 | 4.61 | 6–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
| Brendon Smucker | Westerville North High School | 1.51 | 3.04 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +1.53 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Emma Hutchings | Thomas Worthington High School | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Kyle Bruce | Thomas Worthington High School | 0.10 | -2.90 | 0–6 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Olentangy Liberty High School | 67% | |
| 1 | 2 | Westerville North High School | Thomas Worthington High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 3 | Westerville North High School | Olentangy Liberty High School | 35% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Thomas Worthington High School | 91% | |
| 1 | 5 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Westerville North High School | 79% | |
| 1 | 6 | Olentangy Liberty High School | Thomas Worthington High School | 82% | |
| 2 | 7 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Olentangy Liberty High School | 67% | |
| 2 | 8 | Westerville North High School | Thomas Worthington High School | 71% | |
| 2 | 9 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Thomas Worthington High School | 90% | |
| 2 | 10 | Westerville North High School | Olentangy Liberty High School | 35% | upset |
| 2 | 11 | Olentangy Liberty High School | Thomas Worthington High School | 82% | |
| 2 | 12 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Westerville North High School | 79% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Patriots | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Patriots | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Patriots | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Patriots | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Patriots | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Patriots | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | Charles Pohl '22 Eric Pohl '22 Will Carroll '21 |
Luke Zidar '23 Gavin Hirz '23 Joe Lavelle '23 |
|
Westerville North High School | Varsity | Brendon Smucker '21 Fisher Howe '22 Noah Olsen '22 |
Brinn Faulkner '24 Alex Hedrick '24 Sam Heighway '21 |
|
Olentangy Liberty High School | Patriots | Emily Williams '21 Emma Friedauer '23 Porter Martin '23 |
Brady Smith '22 Alec Kingsley '22 Kyle Burkey '23 |
|
Thomas Worthington High School | Cardinals | Emma Hutchings '22 Kyle Bruce '23 Marshall Wellejus '22 |
Cassidy Hopcraft '22 Leighton Calfee '24 Bryce Ray '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
