Westerville North High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 (fleet 2.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–10 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 5–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 5–10 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-01 | MISSA Baker | skipper | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1–8 | 1.5 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2021-04-16 | MISSA Ohio Baker Pre-qualifier | skipper | 1.51 | 3.04 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +1.53 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Season | |||||
| Ohio State Championships | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 1.62 |
| MISSA Ohio Mallory Pre-Qualifer | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 2.46 |
| MISSA Ohio Baker Pre-qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| MISSA Baker | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Last Dance Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 3.52 |
| Foundry #2 Spring Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.1 | 2.16 |
| 2021 MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 16.4 | -0.49 |
| Fall 2019 Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 1.75 |
| Shepherd Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.0 | 3.07 |
| Olentangy Fall Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 2.14 |
| Great Lakes Qualifier | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.5 | 2.54 |
| Foundry Fall #2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.68 |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | 2.39 |
| Spring 2019 Season | |||||
| Westerville Classic | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 3.34 |
| Ohio State Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 1.74 |
| Foundry #2 2019 | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 2.75 |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 2.66 |
| Fall 2018 Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invitational | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 2.20 |
| MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 3.23 |
| Great Lakes Qualifier - East | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.4 | 1.76 |
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.2 | -0.23 |
| Foundry #2 Re Run | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 2.98 |
| Foundry #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.55 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta 2018 SILVER | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | 1.09 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta 2018 RED | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 0.18 |
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| Westerville Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.16 |
| Ohio State Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 0.27 |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| Thomas Worthington Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | -0.30 |
| Hawken Sail Now Homework Later Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.7 | 0.32 |
| Foundry Fall #1 | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.3 | 0.30 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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