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Last Dance Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Warriors 7 18 25
2 New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 24 9 33
3 Rocks Rocks Rocks 21 19 40
4 Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Mixed 32 22 54
5 Varsity Varsity Varsity 27 35 62
6 Gahanna Lincoln High School Gahanna Lincoln High School Mixed 30 35 65
7 Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Mixed 36 32 68
8 Bears Bears Bears 40 46 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Warriors 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 Brendon Smucker '21
Brinn Faulkner '24
Rocks Rocks Rocks 4 3 6 5 2 1 21
New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed DNF 2 2 4 3 4 24 Beylan Gode '25
John Sullivan '21
Varsity Varsity Varsity 6 4 3 7 4 3 27
Gahanna Lincoln High School Gahanna Lincoln High School Mixed 5 6 7 2 5 5 30 Sami York '24
Graham Newbauer '24
Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Mixed 3 5 4 8 6 6 32 Emily Williams '21
Elena Griffin '23
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Mixed 2 8 8 3 7 8 36 Fisher Howe '22
Jonathan Harding '24
Bears Bears Bears 7 7 5 6 8 7 40
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 1 3 1 1 2 1 9 Jed Lory '23
Nicholas Robertson '23
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Warriors 5 1 7 2 1 2 18 Emma Friedauer '23
Sam Heighway '21
Rocks Rocks Rocks 2 2 2 3 6 4 19
Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Mixed 3 4 5 4 3 3 22 Emma Hershey '23
Rose Darner '25
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Mixed 8 5 3 6 5 5 32 Noah Olsen '22
Matthew Fu '22
Varsity Varsity Varsity 4 7 6 7 4 7 35
Gahanna Lincoln High School Gahanna Lincoln High School Mixed 7 6 4 5 7 6 35 Mia Eisma '25
Liam Rodriguez '24
Bears Bears Bears 6 8 8 8 8 8 46
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
RocksRocks Rocks161618182020
VarsityVarsity Varsity171719192121
Gahanna Lincoln High SchoolGahanna Lincoln High School Mixed181820202222
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Mixed191921212323
BearsBears Bears202022221616
Westerville North High SchoolWesterville North High School Mixed222216161818
Westerville North High SchoolWesterville North High School Warriors212123231717
Worthington KilbourneWorthington Kilbourne Mixed232317171919

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
RocksRocks Rocks171719192121
VarsityVarsity Varsity181820202222
Gahanna Lincoln High SchoolGahanna Lincoln High School Mixed191921212323
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Mixed202022221616
BearsBears Bears212123231717
Westerville North High SchoolWesterville North High School Mixed232317171919
Westerville North High SchoolWesterville North High School Warriors222216161818
Worthington KilbourneWorthington Kilbourne Mixed161618182020
School / Team SkipperCrew
Gahanna Lincoln High School Gahanna Lincoln High School Sami York '24 Graham Newbauer '24
Mixed Mia Eisma '25 Liam Rodriguez '24
New Albany High School New Albany High School Beylan Gode '25 John Sullivan '21
Mixed Jed Lory '23 Nicholas Robertson '23
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Fisher Howe '22 Jonathan Harding '24
Mixed Noah Olsen '22 Matthew Fu '22
Westerville North High School Westerville North High School Brendon Smucker '21 Brinn Faulkner '24
Warriors Emma Friedauer '23 Sam Heighway '21
Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Emily Williams '21 Elena Griffin '23
Mixed Emma Hershey '23 Rose Darner '25

Conditions — 05/22/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1027.8 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1027.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Dublin Coffman: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.25 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dublin Coffman by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Dublin Coffman, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →