Latin School of Chicago '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.28 (fleet 2.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–31 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 11–12 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 15–9 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 13–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 39–31 against 37.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.81 | 1.67 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.78 | 1.69 | 8–6 | 8.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2022-05-01 | MISSA Baker Silver Fleet | skipper | 1.67 | 2.04 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 2022-04-30 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.42 | 1.58 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2022-04-09 | MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | skipper | 1.56 | 2.13 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2021-05-01 | MISSA Baker | skipper | 1.11 | -0.20 | 3–6 | 4.9 | −1.31 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2021-04-10 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.84 | 2.09 | 10–4 | 7.3 | +1.25 | 1.9 | 10% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Timothy Hesse |  University of Notre Dame |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
