University of Notre Dame '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.22) | 272 of 328 | −0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–35 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 5–15 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 11–11 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (64 matches) the record is 29–35 against 36.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 22 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.01 | 1.67 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2026-03-21 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 2.16 | -2.14 | 1–9 | 7.3 | −4.29 | 17.6 | >99% |
| 2025-04-04 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.05 | 0.60 | 2–8 | 3.5 | −1.45 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2025-03-29 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 2.47 | 9–3 | 8.0 | +0.49 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 2024-04-20 | B10 Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 1.17 | 6–6 | 8.0 | −0.90 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2024-04-05 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.91 | 2.92 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +1.01 | 1.5 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| GLIOR PHRF Division Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.5 | 2.05 |
| Big 10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 2.36 |
| Big 10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 2.30 |
| B10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| 1st Year Icebreaker | Skipper | A | 13 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 1.65 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Timothy Hesse |  Latin School of Chicago |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
