| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of Chicago | Maroons | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Purdue University | Boilermakers | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 30,694 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.210 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.33: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwestern University | 6.96 | 9.96 | 10–0 | 8.2 | ≥+3.00 | 3.1 | 10% |
| 2 | University of Michigan | 6.13 | 7.14 | 8–2 | 6.7 | +1.02 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 5 | University of Chicago | 3.20 | 2.88 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 4 | University of Notre Dame | 4.74 | 4.40 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 3 | University of Wisconsin | 6.89 | 5.34 | 6–4 | 8.1 | −1.56 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 6 | Purdue University | 1.57 | -1.43 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wildcats | Wolverines | Badgers | Irish | Maroons | Boilermakers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Chicago Maroons | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Purdue University Boilermakers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wildcats | Wolverines | Badgers | Irish | Maroons | Boilermakers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Chicago Maroons | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Purdue University Boilermakers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Badgers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Wolverines | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Maroons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Wolverines | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Badgers | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Badgers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolverines | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Badgers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Badgers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Badgers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Wildcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolverines | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Maroons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Badgers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Boilermakers | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | Gavin Eskilson '29 Jake Weinstein '27 Nicholas Chesemore '27 |
Miranda Beitel '29 Cora Star '26 Samantha Forgosh '26 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines | Jack Hammett '26 Jack Homa '27 Lorenzo Puertas '29 |
Ben Visco '28 Alexander Reynolds '28 Grace Redner '27 |
|
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | Abe Weston '25 Charlie Herrick '26 Quinn Kaiser '26 |
Paige Kurtenbach '27 Jenna Princing '28 Katherine Ahlquist '28 |
|
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | Michael Cyrul '28 Payden Pittman '28 Timothy Hesse '27 |
Joseph Opferman '27 Jack O'Connor '26 Sara Corbett '29 |
|
University of Chicago | Maroons | Eliot Hack '28 James Leavitt '27 Max Naseef '28 |
Tomas Lopez-Valcarcel '29 Amber Thorland '29 Alex Strassberg Alonso '28 |
|
Purdue University | Boilermakers | Christopher Draper '29 Gavin Holmes '27 Olivia Degrella '27 |
Annette Wadley '26 Hadley Zeller '26 Charlotte Bach '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
