University of Notre Dame '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 (fleet 0.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 7–17 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | — | 5–9 |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | — | 2–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 7–17 against 11.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | crew | 1.71 | 1.37 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2026-03-21 | Big 10 Team Race | crew | 1.75 | -2.03 | 1–3 | 3.3 | −3.77 | 6.5 | >99% |
| 2025-04-04 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | crew | 1.28 | -0.16 | 2–8 | 3.5 | −1.45 | 1.4 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| GLIOR PHRF Division Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Tommie Cup Clinegatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Big 10 Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | -0.02 |
| Buckeye Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 7.0 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| 1st Year Icebreaker | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.8 | 0.98 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Hoosierpalooza | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | -0.06 |
| Acton Up | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 0.55 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
