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MCSA Open Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 9–1
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8–2
3 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 6–4
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 5–5
5 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2–8
6 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,057 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.318 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 90% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Michigan
Wolverines		16.07Braden Vogel / Nina Gonzalez 2.60 6–0
Jack Homa / Ben Visco 1.69 6–0
Billy Vogel / Alexander Reynolds 1.86 6–0
Braden Vogel / Alexander Reynolds 2.64 3–1
Jack Homa / Nina Gonzalez 1.65 3–1
Jack Hammett / Abigail Paul 1.56 3–1		79%9–1 (90%)+1.1
2Northwestern University
Wildcats		35.48Jake Weinstein / Cora Star 2.41
Nicholas Chesemore / Samantha Forgosh 1.94
George Warfel / Maddie Fitzgerald 1.09		67%8–2 (80%)+1.3
3University of Saint Thomas
Tommies		44.60
school −0.30, home +0.36		Greg Bittle / Lily Lupardus 1.84
Rakesh Dhiman / Naomi Peters 0.95
Theodore Graham / Leila Montoya 1.69		48%6–4 (60%)+1.2
4University of Wisconsin
Badgers		25.46
school −0.22		Ryan Tatelbaum / Carter Harms 2.41
Quinn Kaiser / Ella Engel 1.43
Calvin Lutton / Cansin Ozsoy 1.71		68%5–5 (50%)−1.8
5University of Notre Dame
Fighting Irish		54.02
school −0.14		Timothy Hesse / Kate Norman 2.05
Jack O'Connor / John Sullivan 0.64
Payden Pittman / Joseph Opferman		35%2–8 (20%)−1.5
6Purdue University
Boilermakers		61.40
school −0.18		Nathanael Green / Nok In Chan
Mathis Destouches / Annette Wadley
Alexander Sau Hang Ching / Max Liu		3%0–10 (0%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Michigan6.077.019–17.9+0.940.733%
2Northwestern University5.486.358–26.7+0.870.826%
3University of Saint Thomas4.605.276–44.8+0.660.629%
4University of Wisconsin5.464.485–56.8−0.991.396%
5University of Notre Dame4.022.572–83.5−1.451.498%
6Purdue University1.40-1.600–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nicholas ChesemoreNorthwestern University1.942.808–26.7+0.870.826%
George WarfelNorthwestern University1.091.958–26.7+0.870.826%
Theodore GrahamUniversity of Saint Thomas1.692.356–44.8+0.660.629%
Quinn KaiserUniversity of Wisconsin1.430.455–56.8−0.991.396%
Nathanael GreenPurdue University0.79-2.210–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%
Mathis DestouchesPurdue University-0.06-3.060–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%
Alexander Sau Hang ChingPurdue University0.50-2.500–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Northwestern UniversityPurdue University99%
12University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Notre Dame67%
13University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan37%upset
14Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Notre Dame82%
15University of WisconsinPurdue University98%
16University of MichiganUniversity of Saint Thomas79%
17University of WisconsinUniversity of Notre Dame81%
18Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas71%
19University of MichiganPurdue University99%
110University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Wisconsin30%upset
111University of Notre DamePurdue University93%
112University of MichiganNorthwestern University67%
113University of Saint ThomasPurdue University96%
114Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin50%
115University of MichiganUniversity of Notre Dame90%
216Northwestern UniversityPurdue University98%
217University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Notre Dame64%
218University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin61%
219Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Notre Dame80%
220University of WisconsinPurdue University98%
221University of MichiganUniversity of Saint Thomas79%
222University of WisconsinUniversity of Notre Dame81%
223Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas70%
224University of MichiganPurdue University99%
225University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Wisconsin29%upset
226University of Notre DamePurdue University93%
227University of MichiganNorthwestern University67%
228University of Saint ThomasPurdue University96%
229Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin49%upset
230University of MichiganUniversity of Notre Dame89%

Round 1

TeamRec.WolverinesWildcatsTommiesBadgersIrishBoilermakers
University of Michigan Wolverines4–1✕WWLWW
Northwestern University Wildcats4–1L✕WWWW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies3–2LL✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–2WLL✕WW
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1–4LLLL✕W
Purdue University Boilermakers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WolverinesWildcatsTommiesBadgersIrishBoilermakers
University of Michigan Wolverines5–0✕WWWWW
Northwestern University Wildcats4–1L✕WWWW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies3–2LL✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–3LLL✕WW
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1–4LLLL✕W
Purdue University Boilermakers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-3 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 4-5-6
2 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-2-6 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-5
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-5-6
4 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-6
5 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-5-6
6 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-5
7 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-6
8 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-5
9 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
10 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
11 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-5 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-4-6
12 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
13 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-2-5 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-4-6
14 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
15 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-5-6
16 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-4-5
17 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-3-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-5-6
18 University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
19 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-4-6
21 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-5-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-5-6
23 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-4 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-5-6
24 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
25 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
26 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
27 University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-6
28 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-3-5 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 1-4-6
29 Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
30 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/04/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SSE (163°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1025.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Saint Thomas — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Saint Thomas in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Saint Thomas: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →