University of Saint Thomas '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–12 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 10–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 10–12 against 10.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.69 | 2.35 | 6–4 | 4.8 | +0.66 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2025-03-29 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 1.48 | 0.49 | 4–8 | 6.1 | −0.99 | 1.5 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Carin Streufert Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.1 | 4.57 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Big 10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| 2025 Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (J/105) Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Lakes IOR - T10 Division Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| 2023 MCSA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
